In a recent news article regarding Sony’s Playstation 3, a research firm predicted that the new Big Black Box would outsell both Microsoft’s Xbox 360 and Nintendo’s Wii with 75 million units. However, the span of which the PS3 will dominate the next-gen era, according to the article, will be in 2010.
Research and Markets ran an article entitled “The Transforming Global Videogames Market: The Emergence of Next Generation”. Well, let’s get one thing clear: it’ll no longer be the “Next Generation” (a term specifically relating, right now, for the current-gen Xbox, PS2 and Gamecube) by the time 2010 rolls around. The Xbox 360, Wii and PS3 will be heading into the last generation in another three years...okay, maybe not the PS3. But Microsoft probably won’t be flaunting the 360 around in 2010, given the short lifespan of the original Xbox.
But let’s just assume the article is right...exactly why would so many people decide to buy a system with the lowest counting published software to-date (and for the rest of this year and next year)? Apparently the market analyst who believes that the Playstation is going to own up on the 360 and Wii doesn’t follow the trend of video game development. The only people who will invest (or waste) money in a PS3 are gadget freaks, hardcore gamers and PS fanboys. Hands down the PS3 IS NOT a family-oriented system. It’s not even a console that’s designed to appeal to anyone outside of being a techie...even for the average hardcore gamer.
This brings me to a very important aspect of the Research and Market’s article about the PS3 out-selling the Wii and 360 by 2010. How on earth is Sony going to sell 75 million units if a lot of what's going to be on the PS3 is already going to be available for the 360, Wii and PC? And how will the PS3 blast up in sales if developers are still afraid to go all-out for the new console? Heck, less than a handful of registered software developers for the PS3 currently have next-gen engines that even support the multi-threaded architecture to take advantage of all the PS3's processors. And one of those developers just recently added support for the MT processing. So what does that mean? Well it means that gamers won’t be seeing anything special for the PS3 until another three years, which adequately use its processing power to any sort of advantageous functions. But in three years the Xbox 360 and Wii will have wiped the floor with the PS3. Lack of original first-party titles will plague the PS3 up until Gran Turismo 5 and God of War 3. But even the creators for both titles don’t even know when either GT 5 or GOW 3 will be ready for actual development.
To make matters worse, just about every top publisher in the gaming industry has outwardly acquiesced that there will definitely be fewer games for the Xbox 360 and PS3, as opposed to what was available for the PS2 and Xbox. Due to cost and time consumption for designing bigger and purportedly better next-gen games...there supposedly won’t be any bargain-bin titles or throwaway games for the PS3 and Xbox 360. So what in molasses would make anyone expect Sony to rebound with a fewer selection of games, fewer development support, and fewer first-party titles in comparison to what was available for the PS2?
But then again...I could be very wrong about the Research and Market article. Although it’s a slim – very slim possibility that Sony’s PS3 would even survive into 2008. Unless a handful of publishers with a buttload of note-worthy titles come up with something worthwhile for the system, it’s going to be a very bleak “next-gen” era for Sony.