Heading into an opening weekend that pretty much no one knows how to predict, Avatar took in $3 million from midnight screenings last night, according to Nikki Finke. For reference, that's less than Star Trek's $7 million, and about equivalent to Terminator: Salvation's $3 million-- especially given the high price of IMAX and 3D tickets, that's not encouraging news.

But, and I've been saying this for weeks, the real proof of Avatar's success will be in the coming weeks, when positive buzz trickles down from critics to moviegoers and people have the chance to return to the theater to re-experience the visual effects. Titanic had only a modest opening weekend but had made it to $120 million by New Year's Day on its way to becoming the highest grossing movie of all time.

I know it'll take a lot more than just my own enthusiasm to turn Avatar into a giant hit. But if there's any movie that's likely to have a slow build, it's this non-sequel, non-franchise movie that's had to work hard for every audience member it's gotten. It's insane to expect Dark Knight numbers opening weekend, but I'm betting Avatar can give Batman a run for its box office money by the time it's all over.