By Christmas Day, basically every film that hopes to compete for an Academy Award has screened. Because major studios target the holiday date as a prime release slot, films like Disney’s musical Into the Woods, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, Tim Burton’s Big Eyes and Ava DuVernay’s Selma begin screening for wider audiences, so crowds from coast to coast can start to see what all of the fuss is about.
While The Interview ate up most of the movie headlines over the Christmas frame, it will be interesting to see which movies begin to have an impact with ticket buyers. Box office success is a factor when a film is campaigning for Oscar’s top prize, primarily because if a film fails to find a foothold at the ticket booth, detractors quickly can point out this flaw. With that in mind, Angelina Jolie’s Oscar contender Unbroken seemed to get off to a very good start on Christmas Day, and we discuss that in this week’s Awards Blend podcast.
Now, on to the charts. A number of films moved up and down as we sailed past Christmas. As of Friday, December 26, here’s where I think our major contenders stand:
| BEST PICTURE |
The FrontrunnersBoyhoodBirdmanSelma
The ContendersAmerican SniperFoxcatcherGone GirlThe Grand Budapest HotelThe Imitation GameThe Theory of EverythingUnbroken
The Dark HorsesInherent ViceInto the WoodsA Most Violent YearNightcrawlerStill AliceWhiplashWild
The LongshotsBig EyesThe GamblerInterstellar
It’s possible that this category could break major ground if two female directors (in Angelina Jolie and Ava DuVernay) are able to land nominations for their pictures Unbroken and Selma. I didn't have a lot of faith in Jolie's chances, especially after SAG and the Golden Globes left her out. The Director field is competitive this year (as in every year), but Unbroken finding a large audience boosts her profile:
| BEST DIRECTOR |
The FrontrunnerAva DuVernay, SelmaAlejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, BirdmanRichard Linklater, Boyhood
The ContendersWes Anderson, The Grand Budapest HotelClint Eastwood, American SniperDavid Fincher, Gone GirlAngelina Jolie, UnbrokenJames Marsh, The Theory of EverythingBennett Miller, FoxcatcherMorten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
The Dark HorsesPaul Thomas Anderson, Inherent ViceJ.C. Chandor, A Most Violent YearDamien Chazelle, Whiplash
The LongshotsRob Marshall, Into the WoodsJean-Marc Vallee, Wild
Easily the toughest category in this year’s Oscar race. There will be at least five worthy Best Actor candidates who’ll be on the outside looking in on the morning of the Oscar announcements. When picking Frontrunners, I have four who I believe are mortal locks. That means there’s one possible slot open for nearly 20 possible contenders. Who’ll survive the lengthy Opening Stage of the awards campaign?
| BEST ACTOR |
The FrontrunnersSteve Carell, FoxcatcherBenedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation GameEddie Redmayne, The Theory of EverythingMichael Keaton, Birdman
The ContendersBen Affleck, Gone GirlRalph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest HotelJake Gyllenhaal, NightcrawlerOscar Isaac, A Most Violent YearDavid Oyelowo, Selma
The Dark HorsesChadwick Boseman, Get On UpEllar Coltrane, BoyhoodBradley Cooper, American SniperBill Murray, St. VincentJack O’Connell, UnbrokenJoaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
The LongshotsTimothy Spall, Mr. TurnerChanning Tatum, FoxcatcherMark Wahlberg, The GamblerChristoph Waltz, Big Eyes
If the Best Actor is stacked, the Best Actress race is rail thin. A few candidates are emerging, particularly Julianne Moore in the buzzworthy Still Alice. Jennifer Aniston also received SAG and Golden Globes support for her role in the drama Cake, and now looks like she could disrupt the two-horse race between Moore and Reese Witherspoon.
| BEST ACTRESS |
The FrontrunnersJulianne Moore, Still AliceReese Witherspoon, Wild
The ContendersJennifer Aniston, CakeFelicity Jones, The Theory of EverythingRosamund Pike, Gone Girl
The Dark HorsesMarion Cotillard, One Day, Two NightsHilary Swank, The HomesmanShailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars
The LongshotsAmy Adams, Big EyesEmily Blunt, Into the Woods
As predicted, J.K. Simmons is taking the trophies in the early, regional awards races. Hopefully his wins – as well as positive word-of-mouth – can continue to boost Whiplash at the indie box office on fire. Right now, I’m waiting for someone to step up and challenge Simmons for the lead in this category. It hasn’t happened yet.
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
The FrontrunnersJK Simmons, WhiplashEdward Norton, Birdman
The ContendersRobert Duvall, The JudgeEthan Hawke, BoyhoodMark Ruffalo, FoxcatcherTom Wilkinson, Selma
The Dark HorsesJosh Brolin, Inherenet ViceTyler Perry, Gone Girl
The LongshotsJames Corden, Into the WoodsJohn Goodman, The GamblerTommy Lee Jones, The HomesmanChris Pine, Into the Woods
Much like the Best Picture race, I have one lock (in my mind) for the Supporting Actress race, and it’s tied to Boyhood. Patricia Arquette is the emotional anchor of Richard Linklater’s sprawling, 12-year journey, and her sentimental work should be enough to earn the actress her first Oscar nomination. Who will join her?
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
The FrontrunnersPatricia Arquette, BoyhoodKeira Knightley, The Imitation Game
The ContendersJessica Chastain, A Most Violent YearEmma Stone, BirdmanMeryl Streep, Into the WoodsNaomi Watts, Birdman
The Dark HorsesLaura Dern, WildKatherine Waterston, Inherent Vice
The LongshotsCarrie Coon, Gone GirlMelissa McCarthy, St. VincentTilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
