If awards season is a long climb uphill, beginning with a reasonably easy slope as the critic's awards are handed out and ending with the grueling scale to the peak that is the Oscars, then the Golden Globes are the boozy hot tub where you rest for a minute, hobnob with your fellow hikers and take a deep breath to prepare for what's next. The Globes bear all the hallmarks of an awards show-- the dresses, the speeches, the gossip-- but none of the actual importance. So when you watch the Globes on Sunday, make sure you do it for all the right reasons-- to drink too much, shout about the fashion, and win your betting pool, which we're about to help you do right now.

Yes, the Golden Globes can be incredibly difficult to predict-- sometimes they just hand all the awards to the biggest celebrities in the room, and sometimes they make truly oddball choices. That's what happens with awards that are voted on by just 163 people. But below are my best guesses based on years of watching the Globes and following this awards season in particular. Take my advice if you dare, and please let me know in the comments if I help you win anything. I demand a 10% commission, of course.

Don't forget to join us back here on Sunday night, where Kelly West and I will be liveblogging the Globes and keeping up with all the winners, the losers, who gets too drunk to make a speech, and whatever else goes down. If you're going to be watching the silliness that is the Golden Globes, you may as well be doing it in good company.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse
What will win: The Descendants. With Oscar frontrunner The Artist shoved over to the other category, it seems to be between The Help and The Descendants here. Either could win, but I give the power of Clooney the edge.

BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn
What will win: The Artist. Don't discount a Bridesmaids surprise, but the critical favorite seems like an easy winner here.

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Who will win: Martin Scorsese. Yes, it's unusual to predict a split between the Best Picture winner-- both!-- and the director winner. But this is that kind of year, and I think the veteran with a critically beloved, heartwarming film can nose out the competition here.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Who will win: George Clooney. It's not just for a cynical star-loving reason either. Clooney gave the most heartfelt and emotional work of his career, and the Globes voters want to recognize that-- and also give him the opportunity for a typically excellent acceptance speech.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Who will win: Viola Davis. It's between her and Meryl Streep, but The Help is by far the more popular film, and this is an easy place to reward it (especially if it's not winning Best Drama).



BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
Joseph Gordon Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
Who will win: Jean Dujardin. He's been elbowed out by the American competition all year, but finally, here's a prize the charming Frenchman can finally take.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage
Who will win: Michelle Williams. Like Dujardin, she's been overshadowed by some heavy duty competition all season, but her spot-on Marilyn Monroe impersonation ought to win plenty of votes here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Who will win: Albert Brooks. Christopher Plummer has been on a roll lately, and he still might win here, but I just have a hunch about Brooks and his ability to charm Globes voters. This is an out-on-a-limb pick, though, so be warned.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain , The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Who will win: Jessica Chastain. This is the trickiest category to predict, and Chastain's co-star Spencer could easily nab this. But she's been in so many movies this year she must have met the small crowd of Globes voters countless times; who's to say that bright personality didn't win them over?

BEST SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash
Moneyball, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Who will win: Woody Allen. Midnight in Paris is a beloved film that has gotten edged out everywhere this year except this category. It's an easy place to reward one of the year's big indie successes.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
What will win: Rango. Not to count out potential surprise Tintin, but the combination of Johnny Depp and this genuinely good film should be able to win this one.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Flowers of War
In The Land of Blood and Honey
The Kid WIth The Bike
A Separation
The Skin I Live In
What will win: A Separation. Even the force of Angelina Jolie behind Blood and Honey probably isn't enough unseat this huge critical hit, which more than deserves the win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
W.E., Abel Korzeniowski
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Hugo, Howard Shore
War Horse, John Williams
What will win: Hugo. If The Artist wins this we'll see a genuine sweep happening, but I think they might want to spread the love and reward Howard Shore's completely gorgeous work here.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Lay Your Head Down," Albert Nobbs

"Hello Hello," Gnomeo and Juliet

"The Living Proof," The Help

"The Keeper," Machine Gun Preacher

"Masterpiece," W.E.
What will win: "The Living Proof." Seriously, your guess is probably as good as mine here. I'm just going with the biggest movie in the bunch-- it's a guess, but I think a good one at least.