Everyone has that friend that thinks he or she has figured out the Oscars. "That guy's nominated in two categories, so they'll probably give him the lesser award to open the field." "It's been a while since a (enter minority) won in this category, so it is probably a safe bet." "He won't win. He went full retard." The truth, however, is that your friend is full of shit. Every year, in at least one category, there is a huge surprise that nobody sees coming. All of the statistics and science get thrown out the window for a wild card and your friend can bang his or her head against the wall while they watch their bid in the office Oscar pool goes down the drain.

If you do feel compelled to make a bet this year, though, Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director might be your safest choice.

Last night, Bigelow took home the big prize at this year's Directors Guild of America Awards, making her now the front runner for the prize at the Academy Awards. You might ask why this makes any difference at all. Well, in the show's 62 year existence, only six of the winners didn't go on to win the prize on Oscar night.

The win is pretty big for both the director and The Hurt Locker after the film's snub at the Golden Globes, righting the rails a bit as we get closer and closer to the big night. While the film will most likely get nominated in all of the right categories, Avatar stole a big part of the spotlight from what is certainly a superior film. Now we'll just have to wait until March 7th before we can see if Bigelow can steal another major award from her ex-husband.