Box office obsessives have been speculating for weeks that Iron Man 2 may break The Dark Knight's record for a three-day opening weekend (that would be $158 million, if you need reminding), and it's still possible that it will. But the Thursday night midnight numbers aren't necessarily a good sign. While The Dark Knight pulled in $18 million when it debuted at midnight on Thursday in 2008, Deadline Hollywood reports that Iron Man 2 made a mere $7.5 million. It's still nearly twice what Iron Man made from both pre-midnight Thursday night screenings and midnight showings, but sequels tend to be required to play by different rules.

Meanwhile Iron Man 2 is accounting for 90% of ticket sales at MovieTickets.com, and there's doubt that it's the movie to see this weekend. But if I were a box office expert I'd probably cool it on the hyperbolic predictions for this movie. Not just that the Thursday results might be indicative of a slow weekend, but the movie just isn't feeling like the cultural phenomenon that The Dark Knight was. Then again, I expected Kick-Ass to be an enormous hit, so I really shouldn't be trusted.