Mutants at war kicked butt and took names this weekend setting a very
high bar for this summer's blockbuster releases (Superman Returns could be in for a very rough ride). At $103 million for the
3 day weekend ($120 million over the 4 day Memorial Weekend holiday),
X-Men: The Last Stand is the number one opening weekend film so
far this year and has Hollywood all shook up. Three things immediately
came to my mind when I saw how well Wolverine and company had performed
at the ticket counter.
1. This summer could be far hotter at the movies than anyone
expected.Mission: Impossible III's whimper of an opening
weekend hinted that this summer might be shaping up as a repeat of last
year's box office tail spin. X-Men has turned that idea on its
head. It suggests to me that other largely anticipated summer flicks
like Cars and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
stand to do very well indeed.
2. There's still room at the box office for the big budget
blockbusters. When predictions for the third X-Men movie were
rolling out, I didn't hear a single person mention anything near triple
digits. Instead it took in $120 million which is phenomenal, even for a
four day holiday weekend. Even with a huge $210 million budget the comic
book action flick will easily turn a pretty profit, especially when you
consider its significant international following. Who cares if George
Lucas thinks the day of big budget blockbuster moviemaking has past.
Just because he's through with his magnum opus doesn't mean the rest of
the world is going to call it quits.
3. The X-Men franchise may not be as dead as we were being led
to believe. Sure, Fox may have said this was the last time around,
but nothing sounds like "sequel" to a studio exec's ears more than the
cha-ching of a massive opening weekend. Critics have been complaining
that this third film doesn't live up to the quality of its two
predecessors (I tend to agree), but there's no room to argue status when
it comes to numbers. The first X-Men movie garnered $54 million its
opening weekend and X-2: X-Men United topped that with $86
million. This third installment takes top honors at $103 million.
Combine that progressive increase in success with Ratner's wily ways of
keeping the storyline open and you can practically smell a fourth movie
on its way. Whether or not that's a good thing is something for another
discussion.
Over The Hedge managed its own brand of success as well.
After taking a strong second place opening last weekend against Da
Vinci Code, it held onto its audience this week, only dropping 8%
(most movies drop 40% - 60% in their second weekend). It may have huge
competition, but Hedge is still the best thing out there for the
family set and with a three day weekend to fill up those families are
giving the animated cuddlies a warm box office hug.
Next weekend Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn hit the screen
with Break Up. It may be the only wide release film opening next
weekend but it faces some serious residual competition from the mutants.
X2 stayed at the number one spot for two weeks and X3 looks
strong enough to do the same.
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I'd be interested in seeing X-Men and X-Men 2's numbers with inflation. While I have no doubt the first one would still be the lesser of the three, I wonder if 2 wouldn't still be better than 3.
X2 doesn't really compare, even with inflation. Ticket prices only increased about 5-6% from 2003 to 2005. Prices to 2006 would likely be around 7-8%, putting X2 around $91 million in today's ticket sales. However, even if there had been 12% inflation in ticket prices since 2003, X2 would only be worth around $95 million by today's standards. The Last Stand takes the cake.
even more interesting would be the opening numbers for a fourth movie. Obviously, the third movie is going to be bigger than the second because there was a wider audience after X2, as it was very good. People were excited about the prospect of another movie.
the big question is, did it disappoint too many people to cause a fourth movie to fall well below the third's opening weekend?
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May 29th, 2006 at 21:12
I'd be interested in seeing X-Men and X-Men 2's numbers with inflation. While I have no doubt the first one would still be the lesser of the three, I wonder if 2 wouldn't still be better than 3.