oscar winner prediction
BEST ACTOR
To finally settle on a few more Mortal Locks, I've looked to box office. The success of Les Miserables over the holiday seems to solidify Hugh Jackman, and though Silver Linings Playbook remains smaller than it should be, Cooper's previous box office successes ought to tip the scales. And in figuring out whether Washington or Hawkes is the biggest lock here, I decided it was pure numbers-- Flight has made $92 million domestically, and The Sessions has made just $5.5 million. Hawkes could very well still make it in, but I think it's him battling Joaquin Phoenix for that final slot, and it's hard to gauge for certain who will slip through in the end.

MORTAL LOCK

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
LIKELY CONTENDER

John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Jack Black, Bernie
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Richard Gere, Arbitrage

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