Oscar Eye: 5 Reasons To Feel Optimistic About This Year's Awards Race

By Katey Rich 2013-01-02 10:49:43discussion comments
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oscar winner prediction
BEST ACTRESS
In the last few days I've been hearing all kinds of crazy ideas about this category, as people try to figure out who other than Chastain and Lawrence are guaranteed to take up this category. Some think Naomi Watts is a guarantee right alongside them; others think it's Helen Mirren; plenty more, myself included, are mystified at the way Marion Cotillard keeps hanging in there despite Rust & Bone's low profile and language barrier. I'm still not entirely certain where I fall on all this, but I think it's mostly dogged optimism that keeps me hoping the category can include two French language performances plus who would be the youngest-ever Best Actress nominee. Helen Mirren's work in Hitchcock is so minor it would be a baffling inclusion, and I still think The Impossible hasn't made enough impact to push Watts through. But it might be wishful thinking. This category is a bear to figure out.

MORTAL LOCK

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
   
LIKELY CONTENDER

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
 
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
 
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
 
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