Seeing Silver Linings Playbook confirmed that Bradley Cooper is a real threat in this category, seeing Argo confirmed that Ben Affleck is not, and seeing Lincoln surprisingly revealed that Day-Lewis may not be the lock for a win that we all expected. It's a great performance, but not as showy as you might anticipate, and the competition around him is so strong that he might easily be overshadowed. Being a recent winner ought to lock up his nomination, but will make it that much harder for him to win.
MORTAL LOCK
NONE
LIKELY CONTENDER
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
STILL IN THE RUNNING
Ben Affleck, Argo
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Denzel Washington, Flight
OUTSIDE CHANCE
Jack Black, Bernie
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Jake Gyllenhaal, End of Watch
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
Tom Holland, The Impossible
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Liam Neeson, The Grey
Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi
