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MOVIE NEWS
Oscar Eye: Believe It Or Not, There's Still No Best Picture Frontrunner
Author: Katey Rich | published: 2011-12-06 09:46:48
When I first started writing this season's Oscar Eye columns back in September, you'd be forgiven to think it was a little crazy to start talking about awards season. At this point though, prizes and nominations and "For Your Consideration" ads are as commonplace as Christmas lights, with every studio shoveling their best movies into the faces of the critics and voting groups that can consider their films. Only a few groups have announced their winners so far-- that'd be the New York Film Critics Circle, the National Board of Review and the Gotham Independent Film Awards-- but many more will be following in quick succession. By this time next week many more critic's groups will have handed out their awards, and on December 15 next week we'll see the nominations for the Golden Globes, that glitzy and slightly ridiculous group that for some weird reason is still considered a precursor for the Oscars.
So with the award nominations about to go into hyperdrive, let's take a look at where things stand with the films that can now safely be considered frontrunners, whether that came as a surprise or not. I'll tackle a few Best Picture hopefuls in detail up top, and then it will be on to the charts, where there is a lot of changing and culling going on. There will be even more of that happening in the coming weeks, and by the first of the year, it should be relatively clear the handful of people who have what it takes to really make a go of it in each category. The Artist. Long pegged as an awards frontrunner by the critics who saw it and loved it as festivals, this French-made love letter to silent movies made good on its potential last week in a big way, winning the top prize from the New York Film Critics Circle, scoring a handful of Independent Spirit Nominations, and opening to strong box office in limited release to boot. It's still a smallish movie, which might make it hard for the Best Picture win to happen, but at this point it would take something very, very strange for The Artist to miss out on Best Picture, and nominations for its director, star and even score seem very likely too. Hugo. Just two days after the New York Film Critics seemed to ignore the new Scorsese film entirely, and it opened to mediocre box office over Thanksgiving, Hugo surprised a lot of people by winning the top prize from the National Board Of Review. Now, a lot of people will argue that group doesn't mean anything-- and they're probably right-- but the huge wave of love that followed that announcement suggests that Hugo has a lot of support among critics, who may keep it in the conversation even if they don't give it all the prizes. If anything Hugo seems capable of taking a Best Picture spot that might have gone to Harry Potter-- the big-budget, family friendly film that even mean old critics get behind. The Descendants. A lot of people expected the Alexander Payne film to easily walk away with the New York Film Critics prizes and the Gotham Awards, but it did neither, with just a healthy amount of Independent Spirit Awards to boast for itself. But that's far from devastating to the movie, which has good box office, glowing reviews and plenty of goodwill to carry it a long way. If I had to choose between a black and white silent French film and a slightly sentimental family dramedy to win Best Picture, I'd definitely choose The Descendants-- and if it does start winning critic's prizes soon, that argument will only get stronger. Beginners. This movie opened way back in the spring and could have easily been forgotten by now, but instead it tied with the more heavyweight Tree of Life to win the Gotham Award for Best Feature, and also snagged a Best Supporting Actor prize for Christopher Plummer, who is indeed the best thing in the movie. Its actual Best Picture chances may be a little gloomier though-- it's a lovely movie but very slight, and against more recent and heavier competition it may falter a bit. But good on distributor Focus for keeping it in the race this long. Midnight in Paris. It's still Woody Allen's most financially successful films ever, and still a lock for the Best Musical/Comedy category at the Golden Globes. But the film hasn't shown up among critics so far the way we might have expected, and it might not be too long before we start wondering if Beginners can steal its early-summer-comedy fire. But it's early yet. I'm not giving up for a bit. War Horse. The newest film from Steven Spielberg (except for The Adventures of Tintin, of course, which is also coming soon) has factored in much among critics so far, and probably won't. It's a gorgeously shot and very emotionally affecting movie, but it's also fairly broad and probably a little too straightforward for critic groups. It made the NBR top 10, but I"ll be looking to see if it makes it in with the Golden Globes for the Best Drama category. If it doesn't, expect to hear people wondering if it might not have what it takes. If it does-- and then goes on to do huge box office over Christmas-- it could suddenly be a Best Picture frontrunner. Box office will determine this more than usual. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. The noise on this is mostly thanks to The New Yorker's David Denby breaking embargo and posting his review early. Anyone else who has seen it will be kept quiet until December 13. So… hold your horses on this one a bit longer. OK, now on to the charts, where things are taking shape even without a single real front-runner in any category to latch on to.  I didn't mention The Help above, because it's been kind of a non-factor so far, but I expect that to change with the Golden Globes next week. It's such a big crowdpleaser that it will be hard to leave out entirely. But I've bumped down Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Young Adult, since they're more about phenomenal lead performances and likely won't strike quite right with the Academy. Hugo and The Tree of LIfe get bumps up thanks to their own attention in the last few weeks, while The Iron Lady-- which I haven't seen-- and J. Edgar get relegated to the bottom of the heap, since it seems clear that, performances aside, the films themselves are non-entities right now. MORTAL LOCK LIKELY CONTENDER STILL IN THE RUNNING OUTSIDE CHANCE  Hazanavicius, despite being relatively unknown amidst all these heavyweights, seems pretty much a lock thanks to the huge success of The Artist. Now it's just up to veterans like Malick, Scorsese, Spielberg and ALlen to fight amongst themselves, while Miller, Fincher and a few other possibilities remain in as spoilers. It'll be a good lineup pretty much no matter what, so really, we all win. MORTAL LOCK LIKELY CONTENDER STILL IN THE RUNNING OUTSIDE CHANCE  MORTAL LOCK LIKELY CONTENDER STILL IN THE RUNNING OUTSIDE CHANCE  MORTAL LOCK LIKELY CONTENDER STILL IN THE RUNNING OUTSIDE CHANCE  MORTAL LOCK LIKELY CONTENDER STILL IN THE RUNNING OUTSIDE CHANCE  MORTAL LOCK LIKELY CONTENDER STILL IN THE RUNNING OUTSIDE CHANCE  Back to top
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