The perennial complaint about American movies is that it's so, so hard for women to find decent roles. And for the most part, that's absolutely true-- dozens of wives and girlfriends and "hot chicks" out there, but very few fleshed-out, real female characters onscreen.

But Oscar season is when actresses get a chance to climb out of the muck and make their mark, turning in what will likely wind up among the few fully formed female performances of the year. Some years the pickings are slim, particularly in the supporting categories, and even last year left room for Cate Blanchett's widely hated performance in Elizabeth: The Golden Age to make it through. But this year the Best Actress category may be stronger than ever. I mean, it's one of the few categories that has any actual contenders at this stage in the game, which is just enough to get everyone talking.

At the head of the pack are probably Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) and Angelina Jolie (Changeling), both of whom fit the "young, pretty and famous" description that has fit the bulk of Best Actress winners over the last few years (Helen Mirren gloriously excepted). Hathaway especially is earning raves for her performance as the black sheep of the family, and it's the kind of "revelatory" performance that gets way more attention than, say, a more established performer during her usual stellar thing. That's where Jolie fits in a bit better, with a performance as a wronged woman just a year after her role in A Mighty Heart, which failed to get her the Oscar nod many thought she deserved. Changeling, which I wrote about here, isn't good enough to deserve any of its own Oscars, and handicaps Jolie by limiting her performance a lot of crying and screaming. Granted, crying and screaming has earned a lot of Oscars in the past, but Jolie doesn't seem like the actress to take it home.

Sally Hawkins, another young and pretty one, also has a shot with Happy-Go-Lucky, the semi-comedy that earned her a Best Actress prize at the Berlin Film Festival and will be released this weekend. It's a small movie that likely won't break out for audiences here, but her performance is perfect, and is bound to gain traction as Miramax pushes hard for her when campaign season really gets rolling. Luckily the heavy campaigning will be saved until after the Presidential campaign; I don't think anyone could handle them at the same time.

Complicating the mix, pretty much all of Oscar's perennial favorites are back in competition this year. Meryl Streep, who will probably win a Musical/Comedy Golden Globe for Mamma Mia!, will be back in December with Doubt, playing a nun of all things. Five-time nominee Kate Winslet shows up in both Revolutionary Road and The Reader, one of which has to snag her her sixth nomination. Cate Blanchett, having double-dipped in supporting and lead categories last year, romances Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. And Nicole Kidman, whose Oscar win only feels like 1,000 years ago, is back in Australia, which, if it turns out to be the stirring period epic it looks like, could be a major contender after its late-November release.

Believe it or not, Australia, which comes out on Thanksgiving, is going to be the first of those movies to be released. As I've said before, everything is coming out ridiculously late this year, which makes prognosticating at this point silly (but no less fun, for me at least). The only other real contender that will surface between now and then is Kristin Scott Thomas, who is earning raves for her performance in the French-language I"ve Loved You So Long. Also worth considering are the numerous actresses in Secret Life of Bees (among them Queen Latifah, Sophie Okonedo, Dakota Fanning and Alicia Keys), who will need a huge marketing push to get their film seen outside the Oprah demographic.

My only favorite so far, and probably one of the least likely to get nominated, is Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy, the quiet, contemplative drama that debuted at the New York Film Festival and comes out in mid-December. Her performance is small and nuanced, the exact kind that gets overlooked for awards, but will probably be a personal campaign for me. Not that my campaigning means a thing, of course.

That's pretty much all for this week-- the movies I've caught lately haven't exactly been Oscar material (though Sex Drive, I will admit, is actually kinda funny). But the chart below has been updated with thoughts on what has already come out, and a lot more movies, taking us all the way into December. And by next week I'll have seen W., which is almost certainly not going to be a big contender but maybe a small one, and we'll talk about... something! See, it's so early in the season, we can't even promise topics.

FILM DATE SYNOPSIS WIN POTENTIAL

Religulous 10/3 Getting decent box office and decent reviews, it's a pretty good possbility for Best Documentary.

Flash of Genius 10/3 It didn't make much money when it opened, and even though Greg Kinnear was praised, reviews weren't very good. An even longer shot than I first thought.

Rachel Getting Married 10/3 Anne Hathaway did all the press tours and got fantastic reviews; she's widely considered one of the strongest Best Actress contenders.

Body of Lies 10/10 I saw it; it's OK but nothing special, and neither are the performances. If it becomes I contender I'll be surprised and annoyed.

Happy-Go-Lucky 10/10 Sally Hawkins won the Best Actress award at the Berlin Film Festival for her funny, warm performance as Poppy-- it's a small role with potential to cross over.

W. 10/17 Early reviews are iffy, but still go out of their way to praise Brolin. It's an uphill climb, but he could make a stab at Best Actor.

The Secret Life of Bees 10/17 All the talented actresses could cancel each other out, but Sophie Okonedo might emerge in her role as an emotionally disturbed woman. Dakota Fanning is aces, too.

Changeling 10/24 Angelina's role is pure Oscar bait-- lots of screaming and crying-- but the movie isn't all that great. She got snubbed last year for A Mighty Heart, but Clint might be the boost she needs.

I've Loved You So Long 10/24 Kristin Scott Thomas (a previous nominee for The English Patient) is apparently great in this French-language movie. But can two French performances in a row (after Marion Cotillard last year) win Best Actress?

Synecdoche, New York 10/24 Charlie Kaufman's screenplays are popular with Oscar, but his directing debut is weird and disjointed even by his standards. The screenplay and Philip Seymour Hoffman in the lead are both longshots.

Soul Men 11/7 Bernie Mac's final performance is supposed to be great, but the movie will have to be pretty good as well to earn Mac's posthumous nod.

Quantum of Solace 11/14 Never underestimate Bond for technical nods (remember how Bourne cleaned up last year?) Some thought Casino Royale deserved more attention two years ago, and if this one is good, it might get it.

The Road 11/14 Strong turns by Viggo Mortensen and child actor Kodi Smit-McPhee will have to overcome the ridiculously bleak apocalyptic story.

Slumdog Millionaire 11/14 A big hit at the Toronto Film Festival, the feelgood British movie could be Danny Boyle's first trip to the Oscars.

The Soloist 11/21 Oscar winner Jamie Foxx + on-fire Robert Downey Jr. + wunderkind director Joe Wright + inspiring true story = Oscar lock. As long as it's any good, that is.

Australia 11/26 If this old-fashioned, gorgeous war epic has Baz Luhrmann in top form once again, it'll be unstoppable.

Milk 11/26 Great early buzz on this biopic and a big lead performance from Academy favorite Sean Penn make this one of the strongest contenders. Post-Brokeback, hopefully the gay thing won't hurt it.

Frost/Nixon 12/5 Based on an acclaimed play, directed by Ron Howard and featuring two strong lead performances, if it's not stuffy and stagy it'll be a lock.

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