Oscar Eye: Box Office Matters, But The Avengers Still Won't Be Nominated For Best Picture

By Katey Rich 2012-10-23 11:01:22discussion comments
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oscar winner prediction
BEST ACTRESS
I received a screener copy of The Deep Blue Sea last week, which means that there's at least some kind of campaign in place for Rachel Weisz's fragile, heartbreaking performance in that movie. I'd love to bump her up from Outside Chance, but she-- like Mary Elizabeth Winstead and Michelle Williams-- is reaping a performance from a film that just seems too small to get in on the competition. That said, the only change in this week's chart is the addition of Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty, whose role has been confirmed as a lead-- though, since nobody's seen the movie, I have no idea how important that will wind up being.

MORTAL LOCK

NONE
   
LIKELY CONTENDER

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
 
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
 
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Halle Berry, Cloud Atlas
Melanie Lynskey, Hello I Must Be Going
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
 
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