Oscar Eye: Is Flight A Contender Beyond Denzel Washington?

BEST DIRECTOR

No changes here, but I'm really starting to wonder about Paul Thomas Anderson. The Master has all but disappeared from awards season conversation beyond chatter about Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman, but the fact that the Weinstein Company is backing this movie keeps me from counting it out-- even though I have an increasingly hard time imagining Anderson making it into that top 5. I'll keep everyone steady for now, and yes, holding my horses on Affleck, who's incredibly strong but still in a tough category. Argo has a large category and definitely room to get nominated; Affleck has to beat out a lot of more experienced directors for a room in this group of 5.

MORTAL LOCK

NONE

 

LIKELY CONTENDER

Ben Affleck, Argo
Michael Haneke, Amour
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

 

STILL IN THE RUNNING

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Gus van Sant, Promised Land
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

 

OUTSIDE CHANCE

Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Jacques Audiard, Rust and Bone
Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
Sacha Gervasi, Hitchcock
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Andy and Lana Wachowski and Tom Tykwer, Cloud Atlas
Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Robert Zemeckis, Flight