Oscar Eye: Gravity And Captain Phillips Prepare For Box Office Tests

By Katey Rich 2013-09-30 15:03:53discussion comments
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oscar winner prediction
BEST DIRECTOR

The three directors whose films are the likeliest Best Picture nominees are obviously the three Likely Contenders here, but what I said about Gravity and Captain Phillips being one-man (or woman) shows could also hurt Cuaron and Greengrass, because for whatever reasons directors who handle "bigger" movies tend to get preference. Then again, Michael Haneke was nominated for Amour last year, so who knows? It's interesting that there are only a handful of Oscar veterans-- Greengrass, Lee Daniels, Ron Howard, David O. Russell and Martin Scorsese-- with real shots at nominations, leaving it to upstarts like McQueen, Cuaron John Lee Hancock and Ben Stiller, of all people, to potentially steal all the thunder. (It will be especially interesting to see how Stiller fares as an actor-turned-director in this post-Ben Affleck world). Other x factors, like McQueen's general prickliness in the face of schmoozing and Russell's recent Oscars hot streak, could make this a very unpredictable contest.

MORTAL LOCK

NONE
 
LIKELY CONTENDER

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
 
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks Ron Howard, Rush
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
 
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost
George Clooney, The Monuments Men
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
Spike Jonze, Her
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club
Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
John Wells, August: Osage County
 
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