oscar winner prediction
BEST DIRECTOR

I still just can't place Spielberg in the Mortal Lock spot, since he missed out on a nomination for the super Academy-friendly War Horse, and there seems to be a sense that you can skip over him since he's been nominated so many times. But Affleck is definitely there-- and even if Spielberg gets nominated, he might be the best pick for a win at this point.

MORTAL LOCK

Ben Affleck, Argo
LIKELY CONTENDER

Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Jacques Audiard, Rust and Bone
Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Gus van Sant, Promised Land
Robert Zemeckis, Flight

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