With the rising strength of Lincoln, Tommy Lee Jones moves into the Mortal Lock category, and the four-strong lineup in the category below him still looks pretty solid. But again-- Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe remain mysterious. We can't guarantee anything until their movies get shown.
MORTAL LOCK
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
LIKELY CONTENDER
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
STILL IN THE RUNNING
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
David Strathairn, Lincoln
OUTSIDE CHANCE
Garrett Hedlund, On the Road
John Krasinski, Promised Land
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
