oscar winner prediction
BEST DIRECTOR

Still a super competitive crowd, still no clear sense of who the frontrunner might be-- this seems to be one of those years where whoever has the biggest movie will sneak up to the top, with few sentimental factors (i.e. Roman Polanski's win for The Pianist) at play. I've bumped Ang Lee up to Likely Contender, because the advertising onslaught for Life of Pi reminds me that it could be a strong holiday box office player for families, and Lee's work behind the camera is a huge part of that movie's success. But Hooper and Bigelow both still lurk with their movies unseen, easily able to knock out anyone in that top 5.

MORTAL LOCK

NONE
LIKELY CONTENDER

Ben Affleck, Argo
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Jacques Audiard, Rust and Bone
Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Gus van Sant, Promised Land
Robert Zemeckis, Flight

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