Oscar Eye: Lincoln Holds Strong, Jennifer Lawrence Moves Up, And More Developments

By Katey Rich 2012-11-13 07:35:09discussion comments
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oscar winner prediction
BEST ACTOR
Hitchcock's premiere at the AFI Fest in Los Angeles has revealed a light, entertaining movie without a lot of heft, but with a committed Anthony Hopkins performance that has people talking. So up he goes into the crowded Likely Contender category, where there are far too many good performances to fit into the top 5. And that's without even seeing Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables, who could really jump in and complicate things. I'm worried Joaquin Phoenix will be the easiest to knock out because of his surly behavior, even though he deserves to be in there as much as Daniel Day-Lewis. And on top of all this comes word that Christoph Waltz will be considered a lead actor for Django Unchained, so I've added him into this logjam, while taking out a few of the contenders near the bottom (sorry, Liam Neeson. You really were great in The Grey).

MORTAL LOCK

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
 
LIKELY CONTENDER

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
 
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Matt Damon, Promised Land
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
 
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Jack Black, Bernie
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Jake Gyllenhaal, End of Watch
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi
 
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