oscar winner prediction
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Enthusiastic as I am, I'm still not convinced that Javier Bardem's Oscar chances could be real, so I'm keeping him down on the list for now. And unfortunately, what's happening now is that two of the biggest possible spoilers here-- Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe-- remain unseen and impossible to quantify. I think both De Niro and especially McConaughey are weak in that top category, so it's possible to see a real horse race start in here once the race materializes. I'm also hearing a lot of support for Dwight Henry in other corners, but I have a harder time seeing that happen.

MORTAL LOCK

NONE
LIKELY CONTENDER

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
STILL IN THE RUNNING

Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
David Strathairn, Lincoln
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Garrett Hedlund, On the Road
John Krasinski, Promised Land
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being A Wallflower
Michael Pena, End of Watch
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

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