As my friend Nathaniel Rogers over at The Film Experience has pointed out, this Friday can safely be declared the beginning of Oscar season. That's because it's the day that we finally--finally!-- see the release of Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire, a movie that has been lauded since all the way back at Sundance, and if you listen to some people, already has multiple Oscar statues guaranteed it even before it grosses a dime.

Precious is only going into limited release this weekend, but unlike other platformers that have yet to make it out of major cities (An Education, what are you waiting for?), Precious will be playing virtually everywhere before you know it. Not only does it have Oprah and Tyler Perry out promoting it, but it's this year's Slumdog Millionaire if there is one, a story about hope coming out of poverty and overcoming life's obstacles. It's much, much harder to watch than Slumdog, and doesn't end with an oversimplifying musical number, but I have plenty of faith that if most Americans wind up seeing one adult drama this fall, it'll be this one.

I've had Precious ranked as one of the Best Picture locks since I began this column, and as the movie comes closer to release, that position has only solidified. I've yet to manage to bang out my review, but other critics are generally wild about it. The most interesting thing about the movie's public perception, though, has been from publicity tours or lack thereof. It started with rumors that Mo'nique was being hugely uncooperative when it came to promoting the movie, which led into a strange New York Times piece on Daniels in which he claimed to have directed Monster's Ball (he was a producer; the actual director was Marc Forster) and compared raising money for films to drug dealing.

On the opposite end of the spectrum from these egomaniacs, though, there's the film's star Gabourey Sidibe, who is black and overweight like Precious, but otherwise utterly unlike her character. The below clip from her appearance on Ellen, in which she dances goofily and speaks with energy and humor about the film, says everything about her one-woman charm offensive:



Anyone who follows the Oscar race knows that off-camera personalities, however unfairly, can greatly increase the odds for a win-- many people believe Marion Cotillard charmed her way into a Best Actress win, while Eddie Murphy was too prickly to beat Alan Arkin for Best Supporting Actress. If rumors about Mo'nique's unprofessional behavior become actual PR disasters, she may have real competition for the win, though it's impossible to imagine her missing out on a Supporting Actress nomination. Given that Daniels is male and a director, he has a little more room to try out an ego, but many people (including myself) see his heavy-handed direction as one of Precious's flaws; his film may be guaranteed a Best Picture nod, but the Director category only has five spots. On the other hand Sidibe, widely viewed as a third-place spoiler in the Meryl Streep vs. Carey Mulligan Best Actress race, could slip in with her unvarnished charm and out-of-nowhere success story-- it took a lot less for Jennifer Hudson to walk away with the statue a few years back.

Even before any general audience has seen Precious, it has at least four guaranteed Oscar nominations from where I stand-- Best Picture, Best Actress (Sidibe), Best Supporting Actress (Mo'nique) and Best Adapted Screenplay. Daniels stands a shot in Best Director, but it's hard to see the film fitting in elsewhere-- the cinematography, costumes and even editing are all too naturalistic to grab a lot of attention in the form Oscar typically likes. But if the film really picks up speed, there's no limit to what it might get nominated for-- when the Academy really loves something, they typically love it across the board.

As for the other films in the hunt, there hasn't been a lot of change in the last week. The new trailer for Avatar, which you can watch here, is excellent, helping me confirm my suspicion that it's likelier for a Best Picture nomination than it seems now. A trailer for Clint Eastwood's Invictus also popped up (watch it here), confirming that it's precisely the classy Oscar contender we thought it would be. And some random, seemingly created out of thin air bad buzz has surfaced about The Lovely Bones (Awards Daily nicely summed it up), but it doesn't seem worth paying attention to at present. And that's about it in Oscar world.

Below, the charts, with slight tweaks. I've also started putting what I believe will be each category's eventual nominees in red, though of course that's all to be taken with a grain of salt. The Oscar race doesn't even begin until Friday, remember. There's still plenty of time to not know anything.

BEST PICTURE

I've slipped The Hangover into the longshots list, just because it's the hilarious "wouldn't it be crazy??" example everyone keeps coming back to when discussing the Best Picture 10. I also added 500 Days of Summer, mostly because it was an oversight. And yes, I've included Star Trek in my predicted top 10 mostly to start arguments, but also because I can't come up with any likely candidate for that 10th spot. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Precious:Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire
Up Up in the Air

Avatar
An Education
The Lovely Bones
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
A Serious Man

Bright Star
Julie & Julia
A Single Man
The Road

500 Days of Summer
Amelia
Brothers
District 9
The Hangover
The Informant!
Public Enemies
Star Trek
Where the Wild Things Are

BEST DIRECTOR

As much as Lee Daniels is capable of shooting himself in the foot on his way to this nomination, it probably isn't gonna happen. I'm much more interested to see how the old guard-- Eastwood, Cameron, Marshall, Jackson-- fare against some potential upstarts here. Also, Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron used to be married, and for that reason, it would be amazing to see them fighting each other for an Oscar.

NONE

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall, Nine
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lone Scherfig, An Education

Jane Campion, Bright Star
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Tom Ford, A Single Man
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

John Hillcoat, The Road
Michael Mann, Public Enemies
Steven Soderbergh, The Informant!
Jim Sheridan, Brothers

BEST ACTOR

There are so many question marks in this category that it's almost painful to make predictions right now, but sigh, such are the rules I set for myself. Having seen Holbrook in That Evening Sun though, I see his chances at a win as much less likely. So that's something. Going for Mortensen rather than, say, Day-Lewis may be but wishful thinking at this point. Renner also is a very likely spoiler in the fifth spot.

George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Matt Damon, The Informant! Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Colin Firth, A Single Man
James McAvoy, The Last Station
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

Sharlto Copley, District 9
Robert De Niro, Everybody's Fine
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Hal Holbrook, That Evening Sun
Sam Rockwell, Moon

Ben Foster, The Messenger
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brothers
Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Patton Oswalt, Big Fan
Mark Wahlberg, The Lovely Bones
Ben Whishaw, Bright Star

BEST ACTRESS

Beyond the top three, it's all a bunch of question marks. At this point all I can do is take stabs in the dark, since I don't think Cornish will get the nomination in the end.

Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Marion Cotillard, Nine
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Saiorsie Ronan, The Lovely Bones

Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri

Michelle Monaghan, Trucker
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel
Charlize Theron, The Burning Plain

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

With so much silence in this category, it's become almost disturbingly easy to predict. I will be very excited when someone comes along to shake up what seem like these five locks.

Alfred Molina, An Education
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Matt Damon, Invictus
Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia

Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
Jude Law, Sherlock Holmes
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This category is still all Mo'nique, all the time, with a huge mass of actresses struggling for the remaining four spots. Especially when it comes to all the Nine ladies, it's impossible to see where this is going.

Mo'Nique, Precious

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones

Mariah Carey, Precious
Nicole Kidman, Nine
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Sophia Loren, Nine Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

Kate Hudson, Nine
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Imelda Staunton, Taking Woodstock
Emma Thompson, An Education