As I mentioned last week, this year's New York Film Festival isn't the showcase for future Oscar prospects that it was last year. This week marks the first press screenings of some of the biggest titles, from high-profile American releases to foreign films and documentaries that might have shots in other categories, but still, it's hard to find many guarantees.

While Clint Eastwood's The Changeling isn't screening until tomorrow, potential Oscar hopefuls Che and The Wrestler have already had their big press events, one of them including a buffet lunch that tragically ran out of sandwiches early, and the other including Mickey Rourke, who refused to take off his sunglasses throughout the press conference. The movies, wildly different from one another, both contain Best Actor hopefuls who turn in excellent performances-- and probably won't get rewarded for them anyway.

First there was Che, Steven Soderbergh's vast two-part, four-hour film that documents two specific periods in the life of Che Guevara (played by Benicio del Toro). In both the Cuban Revolution, when Guevara and Fidel Castro successfully overthrew the country's government, and Guevara's unsuccessful attempt to do the same 10 years later in Bolivia, del Toro is completely enmeshed in his role. But his director does him no favors, examining Guevara as more of an object of political change than a person. Del Toro's Oscar prospects would have been slim anyway, given Che's massive running time and tepid critical reception, but his performance becomes so obscured by the movie's refusal to let us inside the character that del Toro can't stand out the way he should have.

Mickey Rourke, playing the lead role in Darren Aronofsky's The Wrestler, is in the opposite predicament entirely. He's mesmerizing, completely heartbreaking as a second-tier pro wrestler who can't connect with anyone around him, and Aronofsky pulls back on the visual bangs and whistles to commit the movie fully to Randy "The Ram" Robinson. But while Rourke's performance is unfailingly brilliant, the actor and his career haven't been; Rourke developed a reputation early on for being difficult to work with, and even at today's press conference seemed unafraid to admit to being intimidating on the set. The road to Oscar is paved with many, many handshakes and parties, and Rourke will have to work really, really hard to get back in good graces to get that award. When Julie Christie didn't win Best Actress last year, many speculated it was because she avoided the awards circuit. Rourke will have an ever bigger hole to climb out of.

On top of everything, any actor gunning for a nomination this fall is facing enormous competition. There's previous winner Sean Penn in Milk and Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt, then Oscar favorite Leonardo DiCaprio in both Revolutionary Road and Body of Lies, Viggo Mortensen (a nominee last year) in The Road, and the ultimate prestige pic Frost/Nixon, which could get Best Actor nominations for both its stars, Frank Langella and Michael Sheen. Rourke has a better shot here than del Toro-- everyone loves a good comeback story-- but the old hands at this game have a way of crowding others out.

A longshot actor hopeful shows up this weekend-- Greg Kinnear in Flash of Genius-- and then in a few weeks Josh Brolin may very well astound us with his depiction of the sitting President in W.. But, as with the regular Best Picture potentials, we have a ways to go before the real contenders start to emerge. By the time December rolls around and the rest of these movies come out, del Toro and Rourke may have fallen out entirely.

Since I'll have seen Changeling next week, which features a massive Angelina Jolie performance, and the reviews will be fully in for Anne Hathaway's turn in Rachel Getting Married, we may as well schedule the time to talk about actresses. And below check out the beginning of our brand-new, fancy-pants Best Picture chart, which will eventually list all the potential nominees for the big awards by their release date, and includes a little info on why you should pay attention. We're starting with what's coming in the next few weeks, and we'll eventually move on to something so comprehensive, it'll blow your mind. Just give us a little time to get it going.

FILM DATE SYNOPSIS WIN POTENTIAL

Religulous 10/3 Our Josh Tyler loved it, and Bill Maher is beloved in general. Could it be a dark horse candidate for Best Documentary?

Flash of Genius 10/3 Playing a man who stood up against the then-almighty American auto industry, Greg Kinnear could be a sneak attack Best Actor nominee

Rachel Getting Married 10/3 Anne Hathaway has gotten all the attention, but with Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) behind the camera, even more awards might be in order.

Body of Lies 10/10 Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe are a formidable team, and Ridley Scott got an amazing amount of mileage out of American Gangster last Oscar season. But is there too much action to take it seriously?

Happy-Go-Lucky 10/10 Sally Hawkins won the Best Actress award at the Berlin Film Festival for her funny, warm performance as Poppy-- it's a small role with potential to cross over.

W. 10/17 The movie itself is a huge wild card, but if Josh Brolin is good enough in the lead role-- and it looks like he will be-- he may angle for an acting award.

The Secret Life of Bees 10/17 All the talented actresses could cancel each other out, but Sophie Okonedo might emerge in her role as an emotionally disturbed woman. Dakota Fanning is aces, too.