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Oscar Eye: Predicting The Main Category WinnersBy Katey Rich: 2009-10-19 21:18:07
Welcome back to another season full of Oscar silliness, obsession and speculation with me, the only person at Cinema Blend who firmly believes that the Oscars, in their own way, are actually important. We're still nearly five months away from the Academy Awards ceremony on March 7, but of course there are plenty of movies and performances to ponder well before anyone starts thinking about who they'll be wearing on the red carpet. At this point in the season, with many of the biggest Oscar hopefuls still to be released, a lot of the discussion focuses around individual performances and films-- how Christoph Waltz of Inglourious Basterds is leading the pack of Best Supporting Actor nominees, for example, or if Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker can be remembered despite the June release date. It's pretty difficult to get a big picture sense of things, and I expect much of my predictions to shift wildly based on release date changes, early reviews, or something as ephemeral as my own gut feeling.. Before I get into the charts, which sum up as my general feeling about the likeliest nominees and will be changed weekly , I may as well be up front about the movies I've seen so far. Like anyone else predicting the Oscars at this time of year, I haven't seen everything that's likely to be in the running, though that will almost definitely change by the end of the year (and I'll keep you posted as it does). And while we'll only be dealing with the top six prizes in this edition, later ones will get into technical prizes, and I'll probably do another full disclosure there as well. But here's a complete list of what I haven't seen out of the movies I'll mention below; feel free to berate me for anything egregious, as well as whatever's not on the charts that you think should be. (Note: this doesn't include animated films or documentaries or anything potentially eligible for technical awards, sice we're not talking about those yet) That Evening Sun (releasing 11/6) So, on to the charts. I've tried to sum up general feelings about each category, but am leaving the lists themselves unadorned; I'm hoping, as the weeks go on, to get into more details about rankings, movement in the race, etc. etc. With these charts I'm hoping to simply establish ground rules from which I'll talk about the race from here. Yes, I know that dubbing anything a "Mortal Lock" at this stage is foolish, but consider it coming from the point of view of October, not as some confident expert opinion on what will definitely happen come March. If you want more detailed discussion on the race so far, or a better idea of the critical consensus I'm basing my picks around, Awards Daily, In Contention and The Film Experience are invaluable Oscar sites. Take a look at the charts below, decide which oversights and lapses in judgement you'll berate me for in the coming week, and check back next Tuesday for more in-depth conversation and the beginning o my week-by-week take on the race so far. Let the games begin!  The expanded 10 nominee category means in some sense that all bets are off, but traditional picks will probably still make up the bulk of the field, with the exception of one animated stunner that can't be ignored. I'm hesitant to say "Mortal Lock" for Up in the Air, a film I haven't seen, but the Toronto consensus is too strong to ignore.
 In past years the five Best Picture nominees fairly closely match the five Best Directors, but this year, no such luck, making it exceptionally hard to predict this category. Plus many of the heavy hitters-- Cameron, Jackson, Marshall, Eastwood-- have films that have yet to be seen by anyone. This category feels most uncertain to me.
 Mulligan is the rising star boasting a terrific performance, Streep is a beloved veteran having the time of her life playing a real person, and three others will fit in somehow. Sidibe is marvelous as Precious, so she's in, and hopefully one of those other unseen performances will shine brightly enough to deserve more than a filler spot. (I liked, but was not wild about, Cornish)
 I cannot figure out what's going on with this category, but there is a huge lack of competition between Hans Landa and the prize. Tucci's Lovely Bones role is a likely nomination, but then again, no one has seen it. And some category shuffling might put Last Station's McAvoy or Plummer in here. But can't you hear the wind whistling through those empty slots?
 Most people would have it that Mo'Nique's name is already engraved on this statue, and while she's the only guarantee I can see, she's got to run a strong campaign to back up her "comedian makes good" story. Plus, there are a lot of talented women in here (half of them just in Nine) who could sneak in easily. Again, though, most of these performances have yet to debut, so it's all guesswork now.
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