Sponsor
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Daily Show's Jason Jones Joins Kurt Russell In The Black Marks
Brad Pitt Talks Working With Jonah Hill And Pranking George Clooney On Inside The Actors Studio
John Goodman Joins Baseball Drama Trouble With The Curve
Mary Elizabeth Winstead To Star In The Darkness
Peter Dinklage And Evan Rachel Wood Join Justin Long In A Case Of You
The Hobbit Adds Billy Connolly As Dain Ironfoot
300: The Battle of Artemisium Finds Its Xerxes
Stallone And Schwarzenegger Reteaming For The Tomb
|
MOVIE NEWS
Oscar Eye: Predicting The Nominees Now That We've Seen Them
After taking a week off to slip into a turkey coma, I'm back for the final push of the 2009 movie year, and with a lot to talk about Oscar-wise. When we last talked two weeks ago there were a ton of scattered questions marks about the season, namely whether movies like The Lovely Bones, Invictus and Nine would score once they were finally screened for critics. Now the verdict is slowly coming in on all three, and with just Avatar remaining as a serious Best Picture contender yet to be screened, a lot of vague predictions probably ought to start solidifying.
First things first: Nine is reportedly pretty good, as is Invictus, though no one seems to have jumped up and down on behalf of either (I, of course, have managed to see neither, though by next week I will have). As for The Lovely Bones, despite the generally positive reviews that have emerged so far, I'm here to tell you that consensus will not be kind to this one. It's messy and florid and stunningly untrue to the spirit of the book, and given how many millions of people have read Alice Sebold's novel, I'm betting the tide will turn as the movie comes closer to release date, and its Oscar chances-- maybe even those for Stanley Tucci in the Supporting Actor category-- will disappear quickly. So. In order to catch up with everything else that's happened lately, including the Gotham Independent Awards and the nominees for the Independent Spirit Awards and the Golden Satellite Awards, let's run things down film by film for the big Best Picture contenders, plus a handful of others. After that we'll have the charts with major updates. It seems like the most efficient way to get caught up and lead into the next week, in which I will see a lot of Oscar hopefuls at last, and be able to report back to you with actual information and not just speculation based on buzz. At last! (500) Days of Summer. It scored big in the Independent Spirit nominations, which pretty much everyone knew it would; what will be really interesting is to see how the Golden Globes respond. The original screenplay nomination seems secure, but if the Globes go for it big time, there may be something else possible. An Education. Snubbed by the Independent Spirits except for in Best Foreign Film, it may be getting out-buzzed by newer releases like The Last Station and even That Evening Sun. It's been holding steady throughout the fall, but now is probably the time to pick up the promotional pace to keep it in Best Picture contention and not just Carey Mulligan for Best Actress. Avatar. Waiting, waiting, waiting... the movie finally screens for critics late next week. The Blind Side. I'm as surprised to see it here as anyone, but as summarized nicely by the guys at Movieline, the box office hit boasts a big performance from Sandra Bullock that could easily snag her that fifth slot in the Best Actress category, and if they're looking for a populist people-pleaser for the Best Picture category, well.... I'm not saying it will happen, but it could. Bright Star. The film seems almost entirely out of the discussion at this point-- it was left out of the Independent Spirits entirely, and even Abbie Cornish's nomination may slide past her as the likes of Sandra Bullock show up. Brothers. Natalie Portman is great in this movie, and I'd love to see her as part of the Best Actress conversation. But it's a little too melodramatic and flawed to elbow its way through the December scrum, I think. Crazy Heart. The recipient of a lot of Spirit nominations, it could find the same spoiler spot that The Wrestler did in the critic's awards last season-- but except for lead actor, it will likely also follow The Wrestler's path of being left largely out of the Oscar nominations. The Hurt Locker. It won the big prize at the Gotham Awards, a ceremony where Precious was curiously left out altogether. Its Best Picture nomination seems more secure than ever, but now some people are suggesting it might have what it takes to win the whole thing. We'll see. Inglourious Basterds. The big DVD push to critics and awards voters is apparently about to happen, and if this movie can re-enter the conversation and get people excited about it again, the sky is the limit. Golden Globe nods may tel us everything. Invictus. Early reviews have been filled with modest praise, which, when it comes to Clint Eastwood, is usually enough. It would be far more interesting if the Academy passed on what seems to be minor Eastwood for something more out-there (like, say, the other South African-set movie, District 9), but they love him so much it seems unlikely. Julie & Julia. With The Lovely Bones fading, it may be Stanley Tucci's big Oscar push after all, and Meryl's nomination is all but guaranteed. Can Best Picture be the result of all these acting nods? The Last Station. Nominated frequently at the Spirit Awards, this may be much more of a threat in Best Picture than I had been expecting. It likely all depends on critical response and box office success when it actually opens. The Lovely Bones. I realize the verdict isn't entirely out on this one, but seriously, consider it sunk except for some possible technical nods. Big disappointment. Nine. It's apparently a solid musical that succeeds without setting the world on fire, and that should be enough. Still unclear which actress will wind up in the supporting category, but Marion Cotillard's lead actress push may pay off after all. Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire. Has not managed to lose any of its buzz as it expands around the country and continues doing gangbusters business. A Serious Man. The Robert Altman Award at the Spirit Awards, given for ensemble acting, may indicate a SAG nominee in waiting or even the movie's chances at Best Picture. I still worry that it's too oddball for the Academy, but it's looking more likely that my fears, happily, will prove unfounded. Sherlock Holmes. I haven't seen it yet, and no one has to my knowledge, but there are rumors that it's pretty great. Not a likely nomination by any means, but an interesting possibility to consider. A Single Man. It is as gorgeous as everyone says it is, and Colin Firth is just as good, but it's also an art film, and unabashedly gay. I don't believe the Academy is homophobic, but I'm not sure they're quite going to jump for something so suffused with gay sexuality, especially when the movie falls just short of being great. Up. Not much to say here except that as potential contenders like The Lovely Bones fall by the wayside, the more likely Up's nomination gets. Up in the Air. It finally opens this weekend on a wave of critical support and bearing that Clooney appeal. If it becomes a box office success, which seems pretty likely, it might become the feel-better alternative to Precious and therefore the frontrunner.  No dramatic changes here, because despite the shifting buzz, the basics of my predictions in this category remain the same. Sherlock Holmes and The Blind Side have been added as longshot chances, because, hey, you really never know.
 I'm giving Rob Marshall the James Cameron slot having seen neither of their movies, but on the fairly safe assumption that Nine will be much more the Academy's thing than Avatar. Now that Nine has proven to actually be good, Marshall seems a safer choice.
 Call me crazy, but I'm drinking the Bullock Kool-Aid here. Ronan is no longer a threat, Cornish seems to be fading, and Cotillard is still apparently asking for a lead actress nomination when she ought to go supporting. The other four slots seem so settled that this fifth one, whoever gets it, will be the most interesting to watch.
 Rumor has it that Matt Damon is merely OK in Invictus and not at all awards-worthy, and while it wouldn't be unprecedented for them to give him a nomination anyway, I'm wondering if they might get adventurous-- like honoring Woody Harrelson, who popped up at the Spirit Awards for The Messenger, and really might have a shot here. I also just don't know what to do about Stanley Tucci, who had seemed like such a guarantee until I actually saw The Lovely Bones. It's possible he'll still make it in, but if they really hate the movie, could his Julie & Julia turn be enough to get him in there anyway?
 Moore is great but her part is tiny, though that shouldn't be enough to keep her out of the running. I'm wondering, though, about both Farmiga and Kendrick making it in, especially with so many Nine ladies around the edges, but since i haven't seen either film yet I can't really judge. Hopefully next week I'll be able to solidify my stance on this one.
 |
Advertisement
Advertisement
    |
