Welcome back, Oscar Eye Fans (all of two of you)! Did you miss me? I have to admit, I planned to be doing a lot more coverage of the season following the nominations, writing about who's up and who's down, which campaign was working and which wasn't. But this year, the moment the nominations were announced, all the air seemed to go out of the competition. Of course Kathryn Bigelow was going to win Best Director. Of course Jeff Bridges had Best Actor in the race. Even the actual horse race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker lacked suspense-- could anyone actually root for Avatar in that scenario?

But here we are, a mere five days before Sunday's ceremony, and I'm actually excited. Not because there's any suspense in most of the top races-- there still isn't-- but a lot of the smaller prizes are fun to watch, and hey, it's still the Oscars. Crazy dresses will be worn, rambling acceptance speeches will be drowned out by the orchestra, and if we're lucky, hosts Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin will be funny too.

And I've been following the race, despite my lack of writing about it, which puts me in a fairly decent position to predict the winners from here. Hopefully your office Oscar pool hasn't closed yet and it's not too late to take some of my predictions (with a giant grain of salt, because really, nobody knows anything). Starting today and running through Friday I'll be offering up my predictions with a bit of explanation. Like Oscar, I'll be starting small and working up to the big prizes, though with no supporting acting statues to hand out early to keep you watching (I'm not that desperate). Read below for my best prognostication, but remember: I take no responsibility if you lose large sums of money this way.

TODAY: Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short.

WEDNESDAY: Original Song, Original Score, Makeup, Film Editing, Costume Design, Art Direction.

THURSDAY: Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

FRIDAY: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Actor, Actress, Director, Picture.


VISUAL EFFECTS
“Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
“District 9” Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
“Star Trek” Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Quite possibly the easiest category to predict of all time. As I've said before, District 9 and Star Trek are great and all, but if you don't go for the revolutionary effects and techniques of Avatar, you're just being ornery.
And the winner is: Avatar by a mile.


SOUND MIXING
“Avatar” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
"The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
“Inglourious Basterds” Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
“Star Trek” Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

And this is one of the toughest categories to predict, being one of those typically incomprehensible art forms for anyone who isn't a professional. Tradition says they go for Avatar-- big, noisy spectacles usually do well here-- but The Hurt Locker is so well-loved this season, and has so much noise of its own, that it might be the quiet threat.
And the winner is: The Hurt Locker


SOUND EDITING
“Avatar” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
“The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
“Inglourious Basterds” Wylie Stateman
“Star Trek” Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
“Up” Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

I repeat what I said above-- I don't really know. But thinking sound editing as the layering of sound and imagery, I again go to The Hurt Locker, which does with a subtle needle what Avatar accomplishes with a chainsaw. Plus, it's the favorite.
And the winner is: The Hurt Locker


LIVE ACTION SHORT
“The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
“Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
“Kavi” Gregg Helvey
“Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
“The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

For once I've actually seen these films-- thanks, Donna Daniels PR-- but aside from knowing which one is my favorite-- "Instead of Abracadabra" or the chillingly weird "The New Tenants"-- it's really hard to predict what wins. Given that Oscar in general loves dead kids or kids in peril, and three of the five films feature just that, it's even trickier. For political subject matter and the most adorable kid, though, I go for Chernobyl allegory "The Door." Watch a clip below!
And the winner is: "The Door"


ANIMATED SHORT
“French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
“The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
“Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park

The smart money is on "A Matter of Loaf and Death"-- a Wallace and Gromit film has never lost this prize after four nominations-- but my friend David, an avid fan of Oscar-nominated shorts, promises me that the one you think will win usually wins over the obvious choice. So with that in mind, I'm going for "The Lady and the Reaper," a mordant Spanish short that owes much to the Chuck Jones Looney Tunes tradition, and is all the more elegant and hilarious for it. Watch it below!
And the winner is: "The Lady and the Reaper"




DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
“The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
“Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
“Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

These I haven't seen, but thanks to listening to Oscar Talk with Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson (highly recommended, by the way), I've at least heard the gist. Kris is high on "The Last Truck," given its timely connection to the auto industry crisis, but it's hard to imagine resisting the pull of "China's Unnatural Disaster," about the tragic Sichuan earthquake of a few years ago and the parents who lost their children as a result. Weepiest offer gets my vote.
And the winner is: "China's Unnatural Disaster"