Welcome to day two of this year's Oscar Eye predictions, in which I attempt to reason out what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is likely to reward this year, and hopefully not embarrass myself in the process. If you missed yesterday's installment, in which I threw down predictions for tricky categories like Sound Mixing and Live-Action short, you can find that here.

Today we're dealing with some of the flashy categories that are still impossible to predict, plus the one where Randy Newman routinely shows up and loses. Let's do this!

TODAY: Original Song, Original Score, Makeup, Film Editing, Costume Design, Art Direction.

THURSDAY: Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

FRIDAY: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Actor, Actress, Director, Picture.


ORIGINAL SONG
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
“Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Even before Crazy Heart became a sure-thing winner for actor Jeff Bridges and a movie even your mom would like, it had a slam-dunk nomination with "The Weary Kind," the song that was threaded expertly throughout the second half of the film and gave it much of its beating heart. Now this is a category where a lot of sure things get left out-- Bruce Springsteen's similarly elegant song for The Wrestler last year didn't even get nominated-- but "The Weary Kind" is facing no remotely equal competitors.
And the winner is: "The Weary Kind."


ORIGINAL SCORE
“Avatar” James Horner
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
“The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
“Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
“Up” Michael Giacchino

The smart money here is on Giacchino-- he's won all of the precursors, including the Golden Globe, and is everywhere all of a sudden, having contributed an equally awesome score for Star Trek. But the Avatar juggernaut has the possibility to sweep James Horner along with it, while Alexandre Desplat's work for Wes Anderson is so fascinating and wonderful it might find support. But then again, all anyone needs to do is watch that four-minute marriage montage from the beginning of Up, with nothing but Giacchino's score to listen to, to know who the winner is.
And the winner is: Michael Giacchino, Up


MAKEUP
“Il Divo” Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
"Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
“The Young Victoria” Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Odds are you've only seen one of the film, and same goes for the Academy-- though the nominations process only counts the votes of people involved int he field, it's something of a mystery how a little-known foreign film and a movie heavy on the costumes (we'll get to those later) made it in here next to a summer blockbuster. And Star Trek has more going for it than whiz-bang fun-- the green-skinned girl, the tattooed Romulans, old aged Spock, even Kirk's puffed-up hands are all expert makeup creations. This is a chance to reward one of the year's best blockbusters, and I'm thinking (and also hoping) the Academy will take it.
And the winner is: Star Trek


FILM EDITING
“Avatar” Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
“District 9” Julian Clarke
“The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
“Inglourious Basterds” Sally Menke
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Joe Klotz

The old rule is that no film wins Best Picture without an editing nomination-- but there's no such rule telling us exactly who will win this category. Each of these nominees has a lot going for them, from the extremely emotional and visceral cutaways of Precious to Avatar's lickety-split pace, all done with digital film images. While I've been predicting some wins for The Hurt Locker in other technical categories, I think this is one Avatar can take easily. Give Cameron a chance to get up on that stage after all.
And the winner is: Avatar


COSTUME DESIGN
“Bright Star” Janet Patterson
“Coco before Chanel” Catherine Leterrier
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Monique Prudhomme
“Nine” Colleen Atwood
“The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell

Represented in this category are a lot of classy, stuffy films that came and went quickly this fall, plus the bombed Oscar-contender-than-could (Nine) and a true odd duck, Parnassus, which is probably just thrilled to be remembered. Given that most of these films aren't showing up in other categories and are unlikely to have strong bastions of support, it seems likely the easy choice here will win-- and that's The Young Victoria, which has all the hoop skirts and bonnets and crowns that the costume designers go for year after year.
And the winner is: Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria


ART DIRECTION
“Avatar” Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
“Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
“Sherlock Holmes” Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Young Victoria” Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Of all of these films, the only one with art direction that actually made me stand up and notice was Sherlock Holmes, but somehow that doesn't feel like a winner to me. Despite the CG elements of Avatar, we've heard a lot about the meticulous creation of the world of Pandora-- even though it was done with pixels, it counts as art direction. While The Young Victoria could quite possibly sweep in here with its ballrooms and sweeping gardens, Avatar feels like enough of a technical frontrunner to jump in here as well.
And the winner is: Avatar