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MOVIE NEWS
Oscar Eye: Predicting Which Newcomer Will Crash The Best Director Category
I've just finished interviewing Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, both of whom won slam-dunk Oscars two years ago for Slumdog Millionaire and are back in the race again this year with 127 Hours, which has been quietly building steam since premiering at the Telluride and Toronto festivals in early September. The movie is as big a challenge to typical Oscar stories as Slumdog was in some ways, taking place almost entirely in the canyon where Aron Ralston was pinned by a falling boulder, relying on a whole slew of subjective filmmaking techniques to tell the story and showing, graphically, the moment when Ralston cuts off his arm to free himself-- it's so intense that people have passed out at a number of screenings.
But because it's just two years since the Slumdog Millionaire Oscar sweep, 127 Hours is considered safely nestled in the Best Picture 10 by nearly every pundit, bloody arm-cutting aside. It's a weird reflection of the self-fulfilling prophecy that an Oscar nomination can be-- Boyle spent years making fascinating films that Oscar ignored, but now that he's a past winner, he's considered a safe bet for a nomination even if nobody believes he can win. Same goes for David Fincher, who racked up 13 Oscar nominations for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button just a year after Zodiac was shut out entirely, and now leads the pack with The Social Network. Even the Coen Brothers, who seem like Academy stalwarts now, saw any number of their terrific films ignored before Fargo won Best Original Screenplay in 1996. All this has me wondering who this year's breakout might be, particular in the Best Director category, which feels very wide open and ripe for surprises. Though I doubt he'll be able to win, I'm wondering if this is finally the year for Darren Aronofsky, who has hovered around the fringe of the Academy's consciousness ever since Ellen Burstyn's Best Supporting Actress nod for Requiem for a Dream in 2000, but who has never had one of his films nominated for Best Picture, or gotten a nomination himself. Black Swan is still keeping a fairly low profile following its bows in Telluride and Toronto-- Fox Searchlight will get 127 Hours out of the gate before tackling the next challenge of marketing the psychotic ballerina movie-- but there are plenty of naysayers out there predicting it won't find its way into the Top Ten. Too dark, too artsy, too horror-movie for Academy voters, who won't even be able to acknowledge the brilliant visual style or Natalie Portman's go-for-broke performance. I want to say that's bullshit-- Black Swan may well be my favorite film of the year, and I'm rooting hard for it-- but Aronofsky doesn't have that spot reserved for him the way Boyle, Fincher and the Coens do now; typically you've got to play directly into the Academy's wheelhouse once to get included, and it's much smoother sailing from there. The year's other major new kid contender is Christopher Nolan, who isn't nearly the level of outsider Aronofsky is-- his films have nabbed 13 Oscar nominations among them, including two wins for The Dark Knight-- but Nolan himself has never been nominated as a director. Inception is pretty set for the Best Picture 10 and Nolan seems likely for a Best Director nod as well, though still unlikely to win. Another newcomer who could take it all, though, is Tom Hooper, the director of The King's Speech who has only two previous features to his name. The movie seems to be more of an acting showcase than a feat of directing, and even though the film is a Best Picture frontrunner it's easy to imagine the Director statue going to someone else; if we're looking for fresh blood in the Best Director category, though, it's hard to find someone newer than Hooper. If I had to give the prize to anyone right now it'd be Fincher-- overdue, finally making films the Academy can recognize, and clearly an auteur with a specific vision. But I'm almost more interested to think of the surprises who could pop in there-- if The Fighter turns out to be great and David O. Russell gets his first nomination, if they go crazy for the indie Winter's Bone and Debra Granik becomes only the fourth female nominee, or if they stick with stalwarts and put the Coens and Clint Eastwood in there alongside Fincher, Boyle and Hooper. With Best Picture so open with 10 and so fuzzy, the Best Director race might be the more fun one to watch as the race takes shape. Now on to the charts, where I'm feeling a little more strength for Winter's Bone and Sam Rockwell, wondering what will become of Diane Lane and Hilary Swank's still nascent campaigns, and wondering when the hell the Supporting Actress category will become anything but a bunch of question marks. Next week I'll have seen For Colored Girls, which should clear up at least a few things, and Barney's Version, which could be a Best Actor bid for Paul Giamatti. See you then!  The only major change here is that I've bumped Winter's Bone up as a likely contender, only because I feel like there needs to be more indie weight in there and Blue Valentine's NC-17 rating may have hurt it while Black Swan still seems vulnerable for its weirdness. It helps that Winter's Bone snagged three Gotham Awards nomination-- not a huge deal, but a sign that the June release is sticking in peoples' minds. Call it a hunch for now.
 Nothing has changed here, and I'm still sticking with Fincher as the likeliest nominee and winner for all the reasons listed above. Given the growing excitement for True Grit, though, I also wonder if the Coens could swoop in and become the first winners to snag a second trophy since Eastwood. Of course no one seen the damn movie, so we're totally spitballing here.
 With Never Let Me Go fading from memory and The Whistleblower still without distribution, I've removed Carey Mulligan and Rachel Weisz from near the bottom of the list. I'm also wondering if Diane Lane and Hilary Swank are still in the running at all with Secretariat and Conviction both out there now, but there's no sense in removing them yet.
 Thus far I've been really underestimating the possible sentimental power of a supporting campaign for Michael Douglas in Wall Street 2-- not only is he returning to the character who earned him an Oscar, but he's in poor health and could inspire a lot of affection that way. I've bumped him up to Still In The Running, though I still wonder how much juice they'll get in a campaign for a movie nobody really liked. I've also bumped up Sam Rockwell to Likely Contender-- when I interviewed him last week for Conviction it was clear how serious they are about his campaign, and it would be great to see him get his first nod, even if the performance is nothing compared to what he's pulled out in the past.
 What a crazy, impossible to predict category that shows no signs of clearing up any time soon. Jacki Weaver is the only person campaigning here whatsoever, as everyone else in the Likely Contenders categories holds tight before their movies hit this winter. Could she pull it off by default? I'm still counting on Steinfeld to pop up and wow everyone, but at this point it really could be any of them. Wait and see, wait and see.
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