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MOVIE NEWS
Oscar Eye: Supporting Actor Gets A Frontrunner, While Supporting Actress Is A Mystery
When writing last week about the response to The Fighter at the AFI Fest in Los Angeles, I was trying to make Oscar predictions based on a decidedly mixed bag of responses, which is about as useful as predicting based on nothing but a cast list and a grab-bag of adjectives. But on Monday I finally saw The Fighter, and while it's a more interesting movie because it doesn't fit into a pat genre or style, it's also tough on Oscar predicting.
What I feel strongly, as much in my gut as based on real Oscar-centric logic, is that Christian Bale won't just be nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but he'll win it. It's practically insane that Bale is the only lead actor in The Fighter's ensemble without an Oscar nomination, and despite his long string of bland leading turns in big films like Terminator: Salvation and The Dark Knight, he proves again in The Fighter what a fierce and committed actor he can be. The performance is flashy in the early scenes, as his character Dickie Eklund struggles with a crack addiction and refuses to give up on his dreams of returning to the ring as a boxer, but the strength really settles in in the second half, when Dickie gets clean and starts acting less unhinged; The Fighter features a whole lot of crying and yelling, but one late scene between Bale and Adams is phenomenal precisely for its restraint. Oscars have been won on less than Bale does in the early scenes, but it's his balanced portrayal in the second half that really sells the performance for me. It's not only the best male supporting performance I've seen this year (except for maybe John Hawkes's work in Winter's Bone), but the one I see as the clearest shot for the win. As for the rest of the performances, I think Melissa Leo and Amy Adams both could fit into the Best Supporting Actress race, though while Leo's work is flashier and funnier, Adams really sells her tough working-class girl role in a great contrast to the "bubbly, naive princess" stuff she was spinning her wheels in for a while. And Wahlberg is… fine. Good, even. But with the Best Actor field as crowded as it is I don't see there being any room for him, particularly when he's so outshined by his co-stars. Same goes for director David O. Russell actually, who handles things capably and usually lets the actors take over, but puts so little work of interest into the climactic boxing scenes that he robs his own film of its power. Russell is clearly still a gifted director, but in many ways he seems simply wrong for the material in The Fighter. The other major Oscar news of the week came down in the Best Animated Feature category, with the announcement that only 15 films had qualified for the award this year, meaning only three nominations will be handed out (there's a complicated reason for why this happens, but just accept it for now). That leaves two more films to vie next to Toy Story 3's locked down position, and really, How To Train Your Dragon seems to be settled into the other. Smart money is on The Illusionist, a hand-drawn film based on an original story by French master director Jacques Tati (I'm seeing it tomorrow), but I"ll really be rooting for Tangled, Disney's new musical that's hilarious and endearing and a perfect modern version of their classic animated films. That film may wind up being more important to the Best Original Song category than here; maybe next week, with the other Thanksgiving releases being of little Oscar interest (beyond The King's Speech, which we've already discussed, maybe I'll dedicate that week to Tangled and all my hopes for it. Otherwise, it's on to the charts, where I'm reflecting the fact that I saw Somewhere yesterday, culling out a few of the more longshot contenders, and totally despairing over Best Supporting Actress, which is pretty much an impossible category to sort through right now.  Black Swan seems to be gaining with every critic who sees it, a fact that could not make me happier. I'm still not quite sure where to move The Fighter--it's too compelling to write off, too weird to be guaranteed-- so I'm leaving it where it is. A friend pointed out that How To Train Your Dragon has been absent from this section, despite the fact that its For Your Consideration DVD is the first one I've received from a major studio, so ti's added to Still In The Running. And Somewhere and Love and Other Drugs have been removed entirely-- I've seen them, and for all their merits, they will not be Best Picture nominees.
 With David O. Russell seemingly unlikely to break through, no matter how many nominations his actors get, the path seems more clear for Darren Aronofsky, which is a relief. The Coen Brothers keep taking up so much space here-- when can we finally see True Grit and get some answers? Below that I've removed Sofia Coppola, Oliver Stone and Tyler Perry from the running-- again, culling and facing facts.
 With Made in Dagenham opening this week Sally Hawkins has been making the rounds, fueling my hope that she'll fill in a slot in this still competitive category. Coming up soon, though, is Nicole Kidman and Rabbit Hole, with a big publicity push behind her and more and more waves of critics falling in love with the movie. It won't take too much before I push her up to a Mortal Lock too, leaving Hawkins, Jennifer Lawrence and all the rest to hustle even harder. Kidman's a pro, and more than that, she's really deserving.
 I said it up top and I'll say it again-- I really think Bale is going to win this statue. The most interesting question now for me is who will fill in the two slots that don't seem locked-- it could be a really, really interesting race for those, and one I expect to see the Social Network guys start gearing up to aim for in the next few weeks.
 I kind of want to just walk away from this category and ignore it for a few weeks until it sorts itself out, because even Helena Bonham-Carter it seeming like less of a lock now (maybe it's her grating Harry Potter performance that's getting to me?) and I can't even figure out if they'll campaign both Leo and Adams from The Fighter or pick one over the other. I'm hoping that when the Rabbit Hole campaign kicks up Dianne Wiest will start looking like a frontrunner so some semblance of order can show up here. At least I've managed to remove the For Colored Girls actresses-- it was fun while it lasted, but that ship has sailed.
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