oscar winner prediction
BEST DIRECTOR

Both Alexander Payne and Spike Jonze are previous Oscar nominees whose films played very, very well at the New York Film Festival in the last week, so I've bumped them up to Still In The Running--- veteran status counts for a lot. There's also J.C. Chandor, who like Jonze is a previous nominee for his screenplay, and who shows surprising directorial chops in All Is Lost. Could he be the upstart newcomer in this category like Benh Zeitlin last year? At the same time, Ron Howard has been bumped to the bottom, since even veterans can't compete if their movies don't get enough attention to put them there.

MORTAL LOCK

NONE
LIKELY CONTENDER

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
STILL IN THE RUNNING

J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost
Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks Spike Jonze, Her
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
OUTSIDE CHANCE

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
George Clooney, The Monuments Men
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
Ron Howard, Rush
Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club
Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners
John Wells, August: Osage County

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