Oscar Eye: Zero Dark Thirty And Les Miserables Change The Conversation

BEST DIRECTOR

Here's the big question with the Les Mis surge-- can Tom Hooper really win Best Director twice in a row? It's rare enough to win Best Picture for two films in a row, but winning Best Director for two consecutive films is nearly impossible-- Spielberg came close, but a pesky Jurassic Park sequel and Amistad came between Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. It's not unheard of, and technically Oscars are supposed to be given out based on merit and not based on who's "due"-- but I still think Hooper has a much harder road toward a win than he would if he hadn't just won two years ago. As a nominee, though, he's a guarantee-- along with Spielberg, whose Lincoln is now so undeniably strong that the War Horse comparison from last year no longer seems valid.

MORTAL LOCK

Ben Affleck, Argo
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

 

LIKELY CONTENDER

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi

 

STILL IN THE RUNNING

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

 

OUTSIDE CHANCE

Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Jacques Audiard, Rust and Bone
Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Gus van Sant, Promised Land
Robert Zemeckis, Flight