Lots of shakeups going on in here, to accommodate the supporting players from Les Mis-- who haven't gotten quite the same raves as Jackman and their female counterparts, it's worth noting-- and also Jason Clarke in Zero Dark Thirty, who has the heftiest role aside from Chastain's and could benefit from that movie's increased profile if it happens. But aside from Jones there seem to be no locks here yet, though Arkin seems strong even as Argo's frontrunner status drops. I'll know next week if Crowe and Redmayne are strong enough in Les Miserables to shake things up here even more.
MORTAL LOCK
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
LIKELY CONTENDER
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
STILL IN THE RUNNING
Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
David Strathairn, Lincoln
OUTSIDE CHANCE
Garrett Hedlund, On the Road
John Krasinski, Promised Land
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
