This Rotten Week: Predicting Texas Chainsaw 3D Reviews And A Look Back At This Rotten Year

By Doug Norrie 2012-12-30 10:14:31discussion comments
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Recapping last week and the last year:

Letís quickly look at three wins from last week.

Django Unchained (Predicted: 90% Actual: 89%)

Les Miserables (Predicted: 70% Actual: 71%)

Parental Guidance (Predicted: 19% Actual: 17%)

A strong showing and helped me get over 50% for the year in quality predictions. Speaking of 2012, how about The Rotten Year in Review?


Wish I could say this year provided a stark improvement over 2011, and Iíve lied about a fair amount of things in this column. But this is one I just canít tell. 2012 was almost an exact match of last year. Scarily so. Letís take a look at the numbers:

I made predictions on 126 movies (111 in 2011). Sixty-four or 51% of those predictions fell within ten percent (51% in 2011). Some of those movies I had head starts on for sure-- that is to be expected in the world of early reviews/ festivals/ etc. Another twenty predictions fell within thirteen percent, qualifying them as near, near misses. That takes the predictions up to 67% in the close or very close range. (68% in 2011). See what I mean? These numbers are almost exact matches. Iím no economist. But Iím sure someone out there can interpret these results to mean something. (Please make sure your analysis is only positive/ praise-worthy. Forget the negative people, itís a new year.)

My favorite write-ups for the year were Chasing Mavericks in which I go surfer brah for a couple of paragraphs, The Raven and my poet side, and waxing nostalgic on American Reunion.

I got plenty of predictions wrong along the way, but a few represented legitimate shocks to my prediction system. The Three Stooges (Predicted: 9% Actual: 52%), Magic Mike (Predicted: 49% Actual: 80%), Premium Rush (Predicted: 29% Actual 75%), and Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (Predicted: 28%, Actual: 48%).

The biggest miss of the year was Nitro Circus (Predicted: 61% Actual: 6%).

And then finally, as I looked back at the year, there were three movies I just completely forgot were even made. Even after looking at the title, I had to go back and do a quick Cinema Blend search to remember what the movie could have even been about. Those were Safe (Predicted: 31% Actual: 57%), The Vow (Predicted: 44% Actual: 29%) and Big Miracle (Predicted: 34% Actual: 74%). These werenít necessarily bad movies, just completely forgettable to me.

Itís been a good year everyone. Thanks for reading, keeping me honest in the comments, voting in the polls, throwing up a Facebook opinion and just for clicking through here every week.

Next time around itís squads of gangsters and haunted houses. Itís going to be a Rotten Year!
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