SAG Award Surprises: What Can We Learn From These Weird Nominations?
KATEY: I'd be fine seeing Watts get a nomination-- but she still has to get past Quvenzhane Wallis, who wasn't eligible for SAG but who I still think has it locked down, and also Emmanuelle Riva, who as a French actress was probably not going to get any love from SAG, but is still an Oscar threat. I'm also holding out hope that Keira Knightley somehow storms this barricade, but I realize that is wishful thinking.
SEAN: You know I'm with you on the Knightley bandwagon. And Riva is BRILLIANT in Amour. But I think Keira's chances are slim after the results of the past 48 hours (and I blame Focus for dropping the ball on the beautiful Anna Karenina). She would have had to gain some momentum -- any momentum -- to keep the flame of hope burning.
Last question: Do you think there's a Best Picture frontrunner after what we've seen from the BFCA and SAG nominations? I'm beginning to think Lincoln is the film to beat. Multiple nods from influential groups. Stout box office. Spielberg. Lots of factors in its favor.
KATEY: Yeah, I was thinking Lincoln as well, because it's nearly as strong a film as Zero Dark Thirty, and easy to get on board with-- but there's more to nominate from it, and it's a bit easier to be on board. But I think Zero Dark Thirty's sweep with critics can't be ignored, and if it continues getting headlines like it has it will stay in the conversation.
What's fun, though, is I'm totally down with a Lincoln Best Picture win. This is one of those years where all the choices are really pretty good-- unless we are going to take Best Exotic Marigold Hotel seriously after that SAG nod, which I don't think we should.
SEAN: Nor do I. It's funny. As you know, I was disappointed by Lincoln, and originally felt that I'd be disappointed if it were to win. But after seeing Les Mis, that has become my "Anything But That" target, so yes, I'm down with a Lincoln win, as well. The main thing counting against it, if this matters, is that Spielberg and DDL are previous winners, and for some reason, the Academy rarely double dips. That is a serious factor to consider. It could hurt ZDT, as well. Someone who's opinion I trust pointed out that they'd really see a ZDT sweep had Bigelow not won for Hurt Locker. But she did. I wonder if that will change the course of the race.
KATEY: Yeah that will be something really interesting to consider once we have the nominations set. In the meantime, It's going to be really fun to speculate about all these oddball potential nominations. Anything you're particularly hoping to see happen based on the SAG awards?
SEAN: Seth MacFarlane's "stream" of piss jokes on Oscar night if Kidman gets a nomination?
KATEY: I was trying to end on an optimistic note!
SEAN: That IS optimistic!
OK. I'd love to see Bardem get an Oscar nomination. I'd love to see Naomi Watts get an Oscar nomination. And I'd love to see more -- or any -- support for Cloud Atlas, a movie that has disappeared from the conversation. And you?
KATEY: I'd love Matthew McConaughey to come barrelling back into the conversation-- though without a SAG Award nomination, that's looking a little harder. And I'd love to see this Nicole Kidman surge stick, because Supporting Actress has been a dull category so far this year, and we need to shake it up a little bit. But maybe the Golden Globe nominations tomorrow will throw us in yet another tizzy!
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