This Rotten Week: Predicting Shutter Island's Reviews

By Doug Norrie 2010-02-14 22:14:40discussion comments
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This Rotten Week: Predicting Shutter Island's Reviews image
Last week was my first foray into handicapping/predicting the final TomatoMeter score for some new movies.  After we take a look at this week's movie, we'll see how I did on that first go-around.  This is a dynamic and changing practice.  Each week, I'll hone my skills and approach so that before you know it you'll be calling your bookie and saying things like, “Give me three boxes of ziti on Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows with the over.”  It's coming.  Just you wait.  Let's take a look at what this week has to offer.

Shutter Island

Okay the guy who directed it I saw in an episode of Entourage once, the main lead actor was on Growing Pains a few years back and the guy who wrote the book also wroteA Drink Before the War.  All kidding aside, Marty Scorsese + Leo D + Dennis Lehane book adaptation(Mystic River and Gone Baby Gone) with a little Sir Ben Kingsley on the side means a pretty fantastic movie.  I don't really see any way around it.  That it will probably wind up scaring the bejeezus out of me AND take home some Oscars, well that's a winner in my book. 

Don't need to mess around too much with this RottenWatch.  We're setting it at an unprecedented 90% with the ability to go a little higher.

”Shutter


Ghost Writer

Here's what this movie is about:  The Ghost is a ghost writer who's been asked to finish memoirs for the British Prime Minister (eyes getting heavy). The Ghost agrees even though the guy who was writing it before him died mysteriously before finishing.  The Ghost stumbles on clues that Prime Minister might have been working with CIA.   The Ghost, for some reason, goes to America to write the book.  The Ghost teams up with local kids to solve mysteries all throughout New York City by moving around letters and text to offer clues (PBS shoutout anyone?).  I made the last one up but the rest of this plot seems so tedious I can't imagine people will even care. 

Just as a little backup on that point, consider this quote from the synopsis: “this suspenseful political thriller is a story of deceit and betrayal on every level— sexual, political and literary” Nothing spells an awesome movie like when it is full of literary deceit.  But then it has Pierce Brosnan and Ewan MacGregor so I am a bit thrown off.   And it's directed by Roman Polanski so what the hell do I know?  Going to go better safe than sorry here (because the trailer looks dreadful) and pencil Ghost Writer in at a RottenWatch of 42%. 

Valentine's Day on RottenTomatoes


Happy Tears

Parker Posey, Demi Moore, Rip Torn all cast together in a family dramedy in which Demi is the spinster sister and Torn is dating a cougar (Ellen Barkin) is as likely as Vin Deisel playing a nanny or The Rock playing the Tooth Fairy (wait, what? Oh my god they did? HAHAHAAHA, that's amazing.  Man Hollywood just does anything it wants). 

I've watched and rewatched this trailer trying to get a handle on it. I've gone deep in to the TomatoMeter archives to get a sense of critical acclaim for all the players.  I've even prayed to Zeus for some advice.  You know what he told me?  “Go high Doug.  Go high!”  I think it's going to be a pleasant surprise.  Think The Savages but with a slightly lighter overall tone.   Happy Tears gets a RottenWatch of 70%.

Valentine's Day on RottenTomatoes


Poll

Which Rotten movie will have the highest final Tomatometer score?

  Results

Last Week In Rotten

It would seem I have a bit to learn about this whole prediction thing 

Valentine's Day:  Rotten Watch Prediction 53%  Actual 12%
Here's where I went wrong.  I based my prediction too much on Love Actually and not enough on what I thought the movie was going to do, suck.  Critics didn't seem to have that in mind when they watched this piece of garbage.  Don't get me wrong, I'm glad it's terrible.  I just wish I had gone with my gut and not my big brain.

The Wolfman: RottenWatch Guess  40%  Actual 29%
No too bad here.  Maybe if Katey Rich had just done me a solid and actually liked the movie instead of thrashing it to pieces, I would have been a little closer.  Alas, my internal margin of error is about 10% so this is in the ballpark. 

Percy Jackson and the Longest Movie Title in History:   RottenWatch Guess 69% Actual 47%
Percy and his band of merry little demigods shot out of the gate pretty well and I thought I had hit a homerun.  But then the score kept dropping and dropping until finally ending up at 47%. So I was off, but it was still the highest of the three so the Cinema Blend reader poll called it correct.   Percy Jackson was the best reviewed movie of the week. And in case you were wondering, I read this book during the week so now I can look down my nose at the whole affair.

(Next week:  The Crazies, Cop Out, and The Yellow Handkerchief)

Make your predictions! Give us your predicted RT score for each movie in the comments below! It's going to be a Rotten Week.
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