Oscar Eye: Predicting Another Year's Best Picture Chances, And More Social Network Buzz

In last week's column I pegged The Social Network as the new frontrunner in the Oscar race, and everything that's happened since has only further confirmed the theory. First of all the movie is a modest hit, making $23 million in its opening weekend, but almost more importantly it has been the center of an enormous media blitz, from articles on the film's power to divide generations to its supposed misogyny to even Aaron Sorkin's appearance on The View. It's the only movie anyone is talking about, to the point that poor Let Me In was crushed by it opening weekend, and to the point that even my parents are calling me wondering if it lives up to the hype.

We've learned in many Oscar season past that building up a giant head of steam this early in the season is no guarantee of success, and as Kris Tapley smartly pointed out in a recent In Contention column, there are plenty of big contenders coming down the line-- particularly the Coens' True Grit-- that are just waiting for their chance to topple The Social Network. For the time being, though, it's the 800-pound gorilla, the movie nobody can stop talking about and the one about which we're not asking if it will win Oscars, but what kind and how many. The hype hasn't died down nearly enough on this film to properly assess its chances any better than I did last week, and with nothing else popping up this weekend to take its place-- sorry, Life As We Know It, I'll consider the three potential contenders I saw in the last week. Well, really it's only two contenders, and one gloriously bad turkey.

  • The Tempest. You can read my New York Film Festival review for the gory details, but suffice it to say The Tempest is a big ol' disasterpiece, messy and over-the-top in pretty much all the worst ways. With such a crowded Best Actress field already there's pretty much no chance for Helen Mirren, but somehow I actually wouldn't rule out some technical prizes-- costume designer Sandy Powell already has three statues to her name, including one last year for The Young Victoria, and the production design has some impressive moments as well. If it sneaks into the techs, though, it'll be more one of those left-field surprises than a powerful contender, so don't worry too much.


  • Fair Game. I feel pretty unmoved by the whole thing, a political thriller made with precision but a kind of emptiness by Doug Liman, but plenty of other critics disagree with me, so I might be on the outside here. Still, Fair Game doesn't feel like any kind of Best Picture contender, and its best chance would probably be Naomi Watts, who is predictably good (though never really great) as wronged CIA spy Valerie Plame. Yes, perennial Oscar winner Sean Penn is good as the supporting role of Plame's husband Joe Wilson, but the character is kind of obnoxious and so similar to Penn's real-life liberal politics that it was a turn-off for me, and almost definitely would be for the Academy. I'm sifting this one generally to the bottom of the pile for now.

  • Another Year. Plenty of Oscar pundits have had Mike Leigh's lovely, moving film on the Best Picture 10 ever since its Cannes debut, but while I really liked the movie, I wonder if something so low-key and deliberately anti-dramatic can hit with the Academy, who tend to want movies to put it all out there. Lesley Manville, on the other hand, should be well-positioned for a Best Actress nomination for her hilarious, tragic character of Mary, and given that Leigh has previously snagged four Original Screenplay nods and two for Director, he could easily find his way into both categories again. I'll keep an eye on the Best Picture prospects-- huge critical love and reasonable arthouse grosses could boost its chances-- but it seems to be right on the cusp right now.



In other news Awards Daily reports that Peter Weir's The Way Back has been confirmed for an awards-qualifying run later this year, which means it could shake up the race quite significantly. I haven't changed the charts to reflect this, both because buzz from Telluride was that the film might be a tough sell, and it's kind of hard to gauge the movie's impact at the moment. Maye more next week.

As for the rest of the charts, pretty much the only shifting comes from having seen Another Year and from the sadly terrible box office performance of Let Me In (better luck next time to everyone involved). This week I see Clint Eastwood's Hereafter, though I don't know how much perspective on the race that will give me, since the Academy loves Eastwood ten times more than I could ever hope to. I'm also hoping to get a look at Secretariat at some point, since there are still plenty of people out there who believe it can be a Blind Side-style contender. I'm more skeptical, but I probably ought to see for myself, don't you think?

oscar winner prediction

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BEST PICTURE

The Tempest and Let Me In have been removed from contention, but otherwise nothing has changed here. I promise I'm going to add Inception into the Mortal Locks sometime soon, but I guess I'm waiting for one other big contender-- Hereafter, maybe?-- to stumble before I feel 100% confident doing it. And I'm tempted to put True Grit in there sight unseen, because jeez have those trailers been amazing.

oscar winner prediction

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

oscar winner prediction

127 Hours

Another Year

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

True Grit

oscar winner prediction

Fair Game

Love and Other Drugs

Made in Dagenham

Never Let Me Go

Rabbit Hole

Secretariat

Shutter Island

Somewhere

The Tourist

The Way Back

Winter's Bone

oscar winner prediction

Blue Valentine

Biutiful

Brighton Rock

Conviction

Country Strong

The Debt

For Colored Girls

Get Low

The Ghost Writer

Greenberg

Hereafter

How Do You Know?

Nowhere Boy

The Town

Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

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BEST DIRECTOR

Matt Reeves is officially out here, and as Never Let Me Go continues to struggle in limited release, Mark Romanek gets demoted to an Outside Chance. It's starting to look like there will be a lot of familiar names from recent Best Director races here, including Fincher, Boyle, Leigh and the Coens, but if Darren Aronofsky or Christopher Nolan manage to snag their first-ever Best Director nods, it'll be worth a little familiarity. Finding out if that's possible is a long way off yet, though, so don't get too excited.

oscar winner prediction

David Fincher, The Social Network

oscar winner prediction

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Mike Leigh, Another Year

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

oscar winner prediction

Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

Sofia Coppola, Somewhere

Clint Eastwood, Hereafter

Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, The Tourist

Peter Weir, The Way Back

oscar winner prediction

Ben Affleck, The Town

Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Biuitiful

John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole

Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls

Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer

Mark Romanek, Never Let Me Go

Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island

Oliver Stone, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

Edward Zwick, Love and Other Drugs

oscar winner prediction

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BEST ACTOR

I wonder if they'll campaign Penn as Supporting for Fair Game, but given how unlikely the nomination is either way I won't worry much. For Broadbent, though, he doesn't stand a chance as Best Actor for Another Year, but may well sneak into the Supporting category if they fudge it a little (he is one of the film's three leads, but one of the least dynamic characters). If anyone at Sony Pictures Classics is listening, I've got an idea for you. Oh, and nothing here has changed-- still waiting on Jesse Eisenberg to pick up a critic's award or two, and with both Franco and Firth likely to suck up all the love, it still looks tricky for him.

oscar winner prediction

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

oscar winner prediction

Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

oscar winner prediction

George Clooney, The American

Johnny Depp, The Tourist

Stephen Dorff, Somewhere

Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole

Aaron Johnson, Nowhere Boy

Ewan McGregor, Beginners

oscar winner prediction

Jim Broadbent, Another Year

Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception

Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs

Sean Penn, Fair Game

Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

Ben Stiller, Greenberg

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BEST ACTRESS

No changes here, because it still looks like a six-way race between everyone in the top two categories except Moore, who will have to fight hard to be recognized along with her Kids Are All Right co-star Bening. Even though I've seen all seven performances I'm still totally stuck here, since they all strike me as worthy and their chances will come down to the imperceptible shifts in Oscar buzz. This is one we'll be watching closely in the coming weeks, I'm sure.

oscar winner prediction

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

oscar winner prediction

Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Lesley Manville, Another Year

Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

oscar winner prediction

Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs

Diane Lane, Secretariat

Hilary Swank, Conviction

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Reese Witherspoon, How Do You Know?

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Helen Mirren, The Tempest

Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go

Gwyneth Paltrow, Country Strong

Tilda Swinton, I Am Love

Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Rachel Weisz, The Whistleblower

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

With Garfield and Timberlake still feeling like equally likely Social Network nominees, but no guarantee they'll both get in, it's still impossible to feel certain about anything here. And since I haven't seen anything in the last week with credibly competitive Best Supporting Actor performances (aside from the aforementioned Broadbent issue), I don't have much to add here. Carry on as usual.

oscar winner prediction

NONE

oscar winner prediction

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Justin Timberlake, The Social Network

oscar winner prediction

Ed Harris, The Way Back

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Bob Hoskins, Made in Dagenham

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Sam Rockwell, Conviction

oscar winner prediction

Josh Brolin, True Grit

Vincent Cassel, Black Swan

Matt Damon, True Grit

Michael Douglas, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

Colin Farrell, The Way Back

Armie Hammer, The Social Network

Dustin Hoffman, Barney's Version

John Malkovich, Secretariat

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I'm holding on hard to Kristin Scott Thomas as a likely contender for Nowhere Boy, but the buzz for that movie (coming this Friday) seems nonexistent, and I'm starting to worry. Meanwhile Hailee Steinfeld looks absolutely terrific in those True Grit trailers, and while it's crazy to back a performance absolutely no one has seen, I wouldn't be surprise if early "secret" buzz about the movie starts trickling out to slowly start the Oscar campaign. If True Grit is as good as it looks, teenager Steinfeld could be the fun newcomer success story of this Oscar season. Then again, I might be just wildly optimistic because the trailer looks so great. Take your pick.

oscar winner prediction

NONE

oscar winner prediction

Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech

Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

oscar winner prediction

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Anne-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Rosamund Pike, Made in Dagenham

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

oscar winner prediction

Marion Cotillard, Inception

Elle Fanning, Somewhere

Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version

Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back

Sissy Spacek, Get Low

Mia Wasikowska, The Kids Are All Right

Katey Rich

Staff Writer at CinemaBlend