2012 Emmy Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should And The Dark Horses

By Jesse Carp 2012-09-23 04:19:01 discussion comments
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MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Outstanding Miniseries or Movie
American Horror Story • FX Networks
Game Change • HBO - Dark Horse
Hatfields & McCoys • HISTORY - Will Win
Hemingway & Gellhorn • HBO
Luther • BBC America
Sherlock: A Scandal In Belgravia (Masterpiece) • PBS - Should Win

I’d like to believe that ratings don’t play a huge part in deciding what series are rewarded with the title of ‘Outstanding’ anything at the Emmys but I’m also not that naive. I don’t think Hatfields & McCoys is the best Miniseries or Movie in the category but I do think it will win. The episode of Sherlock in question was one of the brightest bright spots of television last year and should win and Game Change gets the dark horse vote for being from the same team as the Emmy winning Recount.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie
Connie Britton as Vivien Harmon - American Horror Story • FX Networks
Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin - Game Change • HBO - Will Win/Should Win
Nicole Kidman as Martha Gellhorn - Hemingway & Gellhorn • HBO
Ashley Judd as Rebecca Winstone - Missing • ABC
Emma Thompson as She - The Song Of Lunch (Masterpiece) • PBS - Dark Horse

Earlier I said that Claire Danes work on Homeland was the best in all the acting categories combines but if there was any performance to give her a run for her money it would be Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin in Game Change. The HBO film is rightfully well represented in all categories but its best chances, considering the competition, come in the acting races and I don’t see any of the women above taking this one from Moore.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie
Woody Harrelson as Steve Schmidt - Game Change • HBO
Kevin Costner as 'Devil' Anse Hatfield - Hatfields & McCoys • HISTORY - Will Win
Bill Paxton as Randall McCoy - Hatfields & McCoys • HISTORY
Clive Owen as Ernest Hemingway - Hemingway & Gellhorn • HBO
Idris Elba as John Luther - Luther • BBC America - Dark Horse
Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes - Sherlock: A Scandal In Belgravia (Masterpiece) • PBS - Should Win

Kevin Costner will win the Emmy over Benedict Cumberbatch for the exact same reason why I think Hatfields & McCoys will beat out Sherlock in the main category. It’s kind of a shame, no discredit to Mr. Costner, but Cumberbatch’s performance is special and most complex, compelling and (in the end) iconic than the competition. Elba’s work in Luther is equally idiosyncratic and watch out for him as a dark horse after winning the Golden Globe for the role.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or A Movie
Frances Conroy as Moira - American Horror Story • FX Networks
Jessica Lange as Constance Langdon - American Horror Story - Will Win/Should Win
Sarah Paulson as Nicolle Wallace - Game Change • HBO
Mare Winningham as Sally McCoy - Hatfields & McCoys • HISTORY
Judy Davis as Jill Tankard - Page Eight (Masterpiece) • PBS Dark Horse

Okay. I have to admit that I really have no idea when it comes to this category. If I were to pick my favorite performance, I’d probably go with Sarah Paulson in Game Change (she’s amazing in everything, rewatch Studio 60) but I’d also me in the minority and most likely wrong. Lange should and will win because she’s Jessica Lange, although the same could easily be said for Frances Conroy and Judy Davis. See, I’m lost. Go Paulson!

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie
Denis O'Hare as Larry Harvey - American Horror Story • FX Networks
Ed Harris as John McCain - Game Change • HBO - Will Win/Should Win
Tom Berenger as Jim Vance - Hatfields & McCoys • HISTORY
David Strathairn as John Dos Passos - Hemingway & Gellhorn • HBO
Martin Freeman as Dr. John Watson - Sherlock: A Scandal In Belgravia (Masterpiece) • PBS - Dark Horse

Nothing would make me happier at the ceremony than Freeman winning for playing Watson on Sherlock but I’m even resisting the Hatfields & McCoys urge because Harris, sorry, four time Academy Award nominee Ed Harris gives such a great performance as Senator John McCain in Game Change. Not quite as jaw dropping as his female co-star, Harris is wonderful as the man we all know so well from his appearances on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Right?


VARIETY AND REALITY
Outstanding Variety Series
The Colbert Report • Comedy Central
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart • Comedy Central - Will Win/Should Win
Jimmy Kimmel Live • ABC - Dark Horse
Late Night With Jimmy Fallon • NBC
Real Time With Bill Maher • HBO
Saturday Night Live • NBC

I love the fact that The Daily Show with Jon Stewart has won this award for over a decade straight, haters be dammed! Who cares about shaking things up, I only care about rewarding the best series and the Comedy Central satirical look at the news has actual value and truly deserves to win (you could argue the same for Colbert and Maher too, and for the former, you'd be correct). Having said that, Jimmy Kimmel Live is a legitimate contender with his cameo heavy "Post-Oscar" episode being the one submitted for consideration. Awards shows love the stars.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
The Amazing Race • CBS - Will Win/Should Win
Dancing With The Stars • ABC
Project Runway • Lifetime
So You Think You Can Dance • FOX
Top Chef • Bravo - Dark Horse
The Voice • NBC

Not only do I know very little about these shows, but I could care even less who wins the trophy. That's not to be condescending to viewers of Reality TV, it's just me honestly saying that the genre is not my cup of tea and to pretend otherwise would be silly. I can say that The Amazing Race always wins so that's probably a safe bet. I picked Top Chef as the dark horse because it's the only one I've watch more than once or twice. Bravo!

Check out our live blog of the 2012 Emmy awards tonight! The Emmys air at 7:00 p.m. tonight (9/23) on ABC.
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