Predicting The 2011 Emmy Awards: Who Should Win And Who Will

I’d be lying if I tried to claim that I was exceptionally good at predicting the Emmys. In truth, none of the awards shows are all that predictable, which is part of what makes them worth tuning in for in the first place. There’s a lot of talent in this year’s rundown of nominees. I’ve made a solid attempt to predict who will win, and I’ve thrown my own choice for who should win from each of the major categories.

Feel free to argue with whatever morsels of logic I’ve provided to justify my picks! Meanwhile, we’ll find out who does win this Sunday night on Fox. If you're at your computer during the broadcast, be sure to stop by Cinema Blend to check out our live-blog!

Best Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire- Will Win
Friday Night Lights
Dexter
Game of Thrones - Should Win
The Good Wife
Mad Men

I was torn between Game of Thrones and Friday Night Lights on the should-win here. In truth, I haven’t seen the final season of FNL yet. It’s sitting on my DVD pile waiting for my husband to finish getting caught up on the previous seasons, however, it’s a shame the series hasn’t won an Emmy for best drama yet and I definitely won’t be disappointed if it does this year. That said, Game of Thrones was undeniably fantastic. While it’s hard to predict what will happen when one HBO series is up against another, my jaded view on the mainstream opinion of the fantasy genre tells me that if it were to come down to Boardwalk Empire and GoT, BWE would take it. I love Dexter, but I couldn’t argue for Season 5 topping Game of Thrones or FNL (at its best). Haven’t seen The Good Wife yet and I didn’t love the last season of Mad Men.

Best Comedy Series

Modern Family
30 Rock
Glee
The Office
The Big Bang Theory
Parks and Recreation - Should win/Will Win

Parks and Recreation has been funny for a while and people have really begun to notice. As much as I love Glee, it shouldn’t even be on this list this year, nor should the last season of The Office. Both are great shows but neither were Emmy worthy last season. I’m replacing them in my head with Raising Hope and The Middle, both of which should’ve made the cut. And I’ll put The Big C in 30 Rock’s place, even though that show falls under drama as much as it does comedy. If those missing shows were on the list, I’d be completely torn on who should win, but because the aren’t, P&R deserves this one and hopefully it’ll get it. If not P&R, Modern Family.

Outstanding Actor in a Drama

Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Steve Buscemi - Boardwalk Empire - Will Win
Kyle Chandler - Friday Night Lights - Should Win
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Hugh Laurie - House
Timothy Olyphant - Justified

This one’s a tough one to call, especially given all I’ve heard about FX’s Justified. There’s a good possibility I’m way off about this due to not having seen the show just yet. Regardless, I’m going with Buscemi for this, and I won’t argue that he doesn’t deserve it for portraying the gangster Nucky in BWE, however Chandler’s also deserving some major recognition for playing Coach Taylor in Friday Night Lights. This is his third nomination for the role and his last year to win it. He’s due. Clear eyes, full hearts!

Outstanding Actress in a Drama

Juliana Marguilies - The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights - Should Win/Will Win
MIreille Enos, The Killing

Britton is one of the top reasons Friday Night Lights is as great as it is. Portraying Tami Taylor, she’s carried some of the best scenes through her outstanding performances. Of course, she’s up against some steep competition here, and there isn’t a name on this list that could be considered an upset if they won, but I think the Academy will reward her for her performance, if not only for Season 5, then for the series as a whole.

Outstanding Actor in a Comedy

Steve Carell - The Office - Will Win
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc - Episodes
Louis C.K. - Louie - Should Win
Johnny Galecki - The Big Bang Theory

Louis C.K. is fantastic in his underrated FX comedy series. Playing a version of himself may not be much of a stretch, but his performance as a comedian and single-dad emphasizes the brilliance in the subtly of his stand-up act. He deserves this. However, Steve Carell’s days on The Office are over. What’s more, he’s never won an Emmy for playing the role of Michael Scott (despite having been nominated for it every year) and that’s as much a surprise as it is a shame, so if the Academy does decide to take this last opportunity to reward him for his outstanding portrayal of the bumbling big-hearted boss, I can’t say it’s undeserved.

Outstanding Actress in a Comedy Series

Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Laura Linney - The Big C - Should Win/Will Win
Martha Plimpton - Raising Hope
Melissa McCarthey - Mike & Molly

This is one of the toughest categories to call. So much of what makes Laura Linney worthy of this category is the dramatic side to her performance. But this isn’t a category to determine who’s the funniest. If that were the case, Poehler would have it. Maybe Poehler will get it, but I can’t imagine the Academy not rewarding Linney for her outstanding performance as the cancer-ridden Cathy in The Big C. She’s as much a should-win as Poehler, as is Martha Plimpton. I’d be just as thrilled to see Plimpton take it for her role in Raising Hope.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

Andre Braugher - Men of a Certain Age
John Slattery - Mad Men
Alan Cumming - The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones - Should Win/Will Win
Josh Charles - The Good Wife
Walton Goggins Justified

As Tyrion Lannister in the HBO series Game of Thrones, Peter Dinklage stole every scene in which he appeared. If he wins this award, he may actually steal the Emmy’s. He’s certainly in good company among the other nominees, but I’m predicting he’ll take this one.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama

Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife
Kelly Macdonald - Boardwalk Empire - Will Win
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
Michelle Forbes - The Killing
Margo Martindale - Justified
Christina Hendricks - Mad Men - Should Win

Not being a viewer of The Good Wife makes this one harder to predict, considering the category has two TGW actresses represented. If Kelly Macdonald takes this, it’ll be well deserved, however, Hendricks really did pull off an outstanding performance as Joan during the last season of Mad Men.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Ty Burrell - Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, - Modern Family
Ed O’Neill - Modern Family - Should Win
Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family
Jon Cryer - Two and a Half Men - Will Win
Chris Colfer - Glee

Ed O’Neill deserves this for his portrayal of the hilarious patriarch of the Pritchett family in Modern Family, however I’m going to guess that between all of the attention Two and a Half Men has been getting lately, not to mention Cryer’s talent, he’ll win his second Emmy for the role. There’s also a good possibility that with so many Modern Family candidates in the running, they’ll split the vote on the show, leaving the path clear for Cryer or Colfer to grab it.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Julie Bowen - Modern Family - Should Win
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
Jane Lynch - Glee
Betty White - Hot in Cleveland - Will Win
Kristen Wiig - Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock

I think this is going to be Betty White’s year. It won’t be her first Emmy (by my count, it would be her sixth!), but it would be for her role in the TV Land comedy. Just because she already has five Emmy’s doesn’t mean she doesn’t deserve one more for another outstanding comedic performance. That said, I really love Julie Bowen in Modern Family. Vergara gets more laughs, but Bowen’s performance as the dedicated, sometimes frustrated mom in MF is worthy of an award. Judging by the talent on this list, there would be no upsets on this one. All of these women are fantastic.

Tune in to the Emmys on Sunday, September 18th at 8/7c to see if I’m right! Also before to visit CinemaBlend.com during the broadcast to join us for our live-blog.