The next batch of Best Picture contenders all have elements that we could point to and argue "Possibly," but the momentum swings haven’t happened over the course of the lengthy Oscar marathon.

Dallas Buyers Club, for example, has been collecting numerous acting awards over the course of the season for Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto, and I view both of them as frontrunners in their respective categories. But 2013 has been a rare year where Oscar love looks like it’s going to be spread to multiple films, meaning Picture is probably out of the question. There has been some chatter that Philomena, which is beloved, could connect with the older members of the Academy – of which there are several – and the movie could somehow rise up and capitalize on a vote-split caused by movies like Hustle and Gravity. But that likely isn’t happening. The Wolf of Wall Street has a passionate, vocal fan base. Even though it runs 3 hours, it has crossed the $100 million mark domestically. It has a chance… but the chance feels slim.

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