Oscar Prediction Mania 08: No Golden Globes, But What About Oscar?

So you thought the Oscar season was all about fun, huh? Wrong! It’s all about STRIKES and LABOR LAWS and MEANINGFUL THINGS. And even when it’s not about that, it’s still about choosing between a movie on the lack of humanity in society, America’s oil lust, a kid who starved to death in the wilderness, a drug kingpin or any number of other depressing options. Happy 2008, everyone!

As you may have heard by now, the Golden Globes ceremony has now been turned into something quite closely resembling the Golden Globe nomination announcements, except they even get celebrities to do those. At 9 p.m. this Sunday, the Hollywood Foreign Press will hold a press conference and announce, one by one, the winners of this year’s Golden Globes. What happens next is kind of up to the stars themselves. Some of them may be in parties in the vicinity, with cameras cutting to their reactions and the option of stopping by a press room to gab about their award. There will be a red carpet out front, where many can finally--finally!--tell the world who they’re wearing. Some, as usual, will probably ditch, especially now that the whole thing resembles something you’d see on C-SPAN.

But Variety is now reporting that many of the major parties, including several studio-backed ones, have been cancelled, and that the WGA will probably be picketing outside anyway. NBC is trying to avoid a strike by producing the whole thing through NBC News, whose writers are not on strike, but come on, anyone can see through that. Personally I don’t blame the WGA for sticking to their guns, even though they’ve turned this whole thing into such a mess that even I won’t watch. Remember how when you’re usually watching the Globes, someone thanks the Hollywood Foreign Press and you think, “Wait, who are they?” Well now all your questions will be answered, as they’ll be on stage handing out awards instead of this year’s Miss Golden Globe, Rumer Willis. Thrilled, aren’t you?

So with the Golden Globes dead in the water, and the fate of the Oscars possibly in question as well, all we have is the smaller awards to placate us. The SAG Awards, happening later this month, were granted a waiver to go on unhindered by pickets, and last night the Critics Choice Awards got the same treatment. Though watching the Oscar horse race has almost become secondary to wondering whether or not the damn thing will even happen, there were still some interesting results. Oh, who am I kidding? The same people are winning over and over again with every group of critics--mostly-- and this was no exception. No Country for Old Men took Picture, Director and Supporting Actor. Daniel Day-Lewis, Julie Christie and Amy Ryan racked up the other acting nods. They even pulled the Golden Globe trick of dividing the picture nominess, and gave Juno Best Comedy.

There were a couple of Critics Choice-only awards that were fun to watch. Nikki Blonsky of Hairspray won Best Young Actress, and the full Hairspray crew won Best Ensemble (they’re up for that one at the SAG Awards too, so watch out for that). Ahmad Khan Mahmoodzada, the kid from The Kite Runner also won Best Young Actor, which is nice since it’s likely the only attention the kid will get.

The real and only, surprise of the night is that Into the Wild, which led the pack with seven nominations, was completely shut out. Atonement and Sweeney Todd were also left out, but Wild was really relying on the strength from its many nominations for Oscar heat. Now it’s looking less likely that it can sneak into the Best Picture top five, currently dominated by No Country for Old Men and, well, just about anyone else. For my money it’s probably Juno, Michael Clayton, Atonement and, yes, Into the Wild, but don’t hold me to it.

I’m still enjoying all this Oscar prediction hoo-ha-- I mean, of course I am-- but I have to say it’s getting harder to be on board amid all this labor tension. The WGA has already ruined my TV watching schedule, and now it’s threatening to ruin the night that, for me, is better than the Superbowl. Soon they might leave me with nothing better to do than watch sports. I don’t like making threats, but if that’s what it takes to get this resolved and get the Oscars on track, I’m willing to do it.

Today the Director’s Guild of America releases their nominations for the Best Directors of the year, usually a very strong indicator of who will be in the final Oscar line-up. Later this week the WGA will put down their pickets and do the same thing. So by the time we meet again we will have witnessed the debacle that may or may not be this year’s Golden Globes-- be prepared to discuss and eviscerate it accordingly!

Katey Rich

Staff Writer at CinemaBlend