After taking a week off to slip into a turkey coma, I'm back for the final push of the 2009 movie year, and with a lot to talk about Oscar-wise. When we last talked two weeks ago there were a ton of scattered questions marks about the season, namely whether movies like The Lovely Bones, Invictus and Nine would score once they were finally screened for critics. Now the verdict is slowly coming in on all three, and with just Avatar remaining as a serious Best Picture contender yet to be screened, a lot of vague predictions probably ought to start solidifying.
First things first: Nine is reportedly pretty good, as is Invictus, though no one seems to have jumped up and down on behalf of either (I, of course, have managed to see neither, though by next week I will have). As for The Lovely Bones, despite the generally positive reviews that have emerged so far, I'm here to tell you that consensus will not be kind to this one. It's messy and florid and stunningly untrue to the spirit of the book, and given how many millions of people have read Alice Sebold's novel, I'm betting the tide will turn as the movie comes closer to release date, and its Oscar chances-- maybe even those for Stanley Tucci in the Supporting Actor category-- will disappear quickly.
So. In order to catch up with everything else that's happened lately, including the Gotham Independent Awards and the nominees for the Independent Spirit Awards and the Golden Satellite Awards, let's run things down film by film for the big Best Picture contenders, plus a handful of others. After that we'll have the charts with major updates. It seems like the most efficient way to get caught up and lead into the next week, in which I will see a lot of Oscar hopefuls at last, and be able to report back to you with actual information and not just speculation based on buzz. At last!
(500) Days of Summer. It scored big in the Independent Spirit nominations, which pretty much everyone knew it would; what will be really interesting is to see how the Golden Globes respond. The original screenplay nomination seems secure, but if the Globes go for it big time, there may be something else possible.
An Education. Snubbed by the Independent Spirits except for in Best Foreign Film, it may be getting out-buzzed by newer releases like The Last Station and even That Evening Sun. It's been holding steady throughout the fall, but now is probably the time to pick up the promotional pace to keep it in Best Picture contention and not just Carey Mulligan for Best Actress.
Avatar. Waiting, waiting, waiting... the movie finally screens for critics late next week.
The Blind Side. I'm as surprised to see it here as anyone, but as summarized nicely by the guys at Movieline, the box office hit boasts a big performance from Sandra Bullock that could easily snag her that fifth slot in the Best Actress category, and if they're looking for a populist people-pleaser for the Best Picture category, well.... I'm not saying it will happen, but it could.
Bright Star. The film seems almost entirely out of the discussion at this point-- it was left out of the Independent Spirits entirely, and even Abbie Cornish's nomination may slide past her as the likes of Sandra Bullock show up.
Brothers. Natalie Portman is great in this movie, and I'd love to see her as part of the Best Actress conversation. But it's a little too melodramatic and flawed to elbow its way through the December scrum, I think.
Crazy Heart. The recipient of a lot of Spirit nominations, it could find the same spoiler spot that The Wrestler did in the critic's awards last season-- but except for lead actor, it will likely also follow The Wrestler's path of being left largely out of the Oscar nominations.
The Hurt Locker. It won the big prize at the Gotham Awards, a ceremony where Precious was curiously left out altogether. Its Best Picture nomination seems more secure than ever, but now some people are suggesting it might have what it takes to win the whole thing. We'll see.
Inglourious Basterds. The big DVD push to critics and awards voters is apparently about to happen, and if this movie can re-enter the conversation and get people excited about it again, the sky is the limit. Golden Globe nods may tel us everything.
Invictus. Early reviews have been filled with modest praise, which, when it comes to Clint Eastwood, is usually enough. It would be far more interesting if the Academy passed on what seems to be minor Eastwood for something more out-there (like, say, the other South African-set movie, District 9), but they love him so much it seems unlikely.
Julie & Julia. With The Lovely Bones fading, it may be Stanley Tucci's big Oscar push after all, and Meryl's nomination is all but guaranteed. Can Best Picture be the result of all these acting nods?
The Last Station. Nominated frequently at the Spirit Awards, this may be much more of a threat in Best Picture than I had been expecting. It likely all depends on critical response and box office success when it actually opens.
The Lovely Bones. I realize the verdict isn't entirely out on this one, but seriously, consider it sunk except for some possible technical nods. Big disappointment.
Nine. It's apparently a solid musical that succeeds without setting the world on fire, and that should be enough. Still unclear which actress will wind up in the supporting category, but Marion Cotillard's lead actress push may pay off after all.
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire. Has not managed to lose any of its buzz as it expands around the country and continues doing gangbusters business.
A Serious Man. The Robert Altman Award at the Spirit Awards, given for ensemble acting, may indicate a SAG nominee in waiting or even the movie's chances at Best Picture. I still worry that it's too oddball for the Academy, but it's looking more likely that my fears, happily, will prove unfounded.
Sherlock Holmes. I haven't seen it yet, and no one has to my knowledge, but there are rumors that it's pretty great. Not a likely nomination by any means, but an interesting possibility to consider.
A Single Man. It is as gorgeous as everyone says it is, and Colin Firth is just as good, but it's also an art film, and unabashedly gay. I don't believe the Academy is homophobic, but I'm not sure they're quite going to jump for something so suffused with gay sexuality, especially when the movie falls just short of being great.
Up. Not much to say here except that as potential contenders like The Lovely Bones fall by the wayside, the more likely Up's nomination gets.
Up in the Air. It finally opens this weekend on a wave of critical support and bearing that Clooney appeal. If it becomes a box office success, which seems pretty likely, it might become the feel-better alternative to Precious and therefore the frontrunner.
| BEST PICTURE |
No dramatic changes here, because despite the shifting buzz, the basics of my predictions in this category remain the same. Sherlock Holmes and The Blind Side have been added as longshot chances, because, hey, you really never know.
Precious:Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire
Up Up in the Air
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
A Serious Man
Julie & Julia
A Single Man
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
The Road
500 Days of Summer
The Blind Side
Bright Star
Brothers
Crazy Heart
District 9
The Hangover
The Informant!
Public Enemies
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
Where the Wild Things Are
| BEST DIRECTOR |
I'm giving Rob Marshall the James Cameron slot having seen neither of their movies, but on the fairly safe assumption that Nine will be much more the Academy's thing than Avatar. Now that Nine has proven to actually be good, Marshall seems a safer choice.
NONE
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Rob Marshall, Nine
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lone Scherfig, An Education
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Tom Ford, A Single Man
\ Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
John Hillcoat, The Road
Michael Hoffman, The Last Station
Michael Mann, Public Enemies
Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Steven Soderbergh, The Informant!
Jim Sheridan, Brothers
| BEST ACTOR |
Michael Stuhlbarg, looking like a potential spoiler here, got shut out at the Spirit Awards, which is not a good sign. Meanwhile Freeman's performance is the one universally praised thing about Invictus, The Last Station picking up steam at the Spirits bodes well for McAvoy, and having seen Colin Firth with my own eyes, he seems safe to me. In short, nothing here has changed.
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
James McAvoy, The Last Station
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man
Sharlto Copley, District 9
Robert De Niro, Everybody's Fine
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 500 Days of Summer
Hal Holbrook, That Evening Sun
Sam Rockwell, Moon
Ben Foster, The Messenger
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brothers
Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Patton Oswalt, Big Fan
Mark Wahlberg, The Lovely Bones
Ben Whishaw, Bright Star
| BEST ACTRESS |
Call me crazy, but I'm drinking the Bullock Kool-Aid here. Ronan is no longer a threat, Cornish seems to be fading, and Cotillard is still apparently asking for a lead actress nomination when she ought to go supporting. The other four slots seem so settled that this fifth one, whoever gets it, will be the most interesting to watch.
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Natalie Portman, Brothers
Saiorsie Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Michelle Monaghan, Trucker
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel
Charlize Theron, The Burning Plain
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
Rumor has it that Matt Damon is merely OK in Invictus and not at all awards-worthy, and while it wouldn't be unprecedented for them to give him a nomination anyway, I'm wondering if they might get adventurous-- like honoring Woody Harrelson, who popped up at the Spirit Awards for The Messenger, and really might have a shot here. I also just don't know what to do about Stanley Tucci, who had seemed like such a guarantee until I actually saw The Lovely Bones. It's possible he'll still make it in, but if they really hate the movie, could his Julie & Julia turn be enough to get him in there anyway?
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Matt Damon, Invictus
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
Jude Law, Sherlock Holmes
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
Moore is great but her part is tiny, though that shouldn't be enough to keep her out of the running. I'm wondering, though, about both Farmiga and Kendrick making it in, especially with so many Nine ladies around the edges, but since i haven't seen either film yet I can't really judge. Hopefully next week I'll be able to solidify my stance on this one.
Mo'Nique, Precious
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mariah Carey, Precious
Kate Hudson, Nine
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Sophia Loren, Nine Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
Nicole Kidman, Nine
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Paula Patton, Precious
Imelda Staunton, Taking Woodstock
Emma Thompson, An Education
