So did you watch the Globes last night-- tune in for the dresses, stick around for the drunken acceptance speeches, all that? It was a fun show with a seriously heavy focus on the mainstream, with big wins for Avatar and Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep winning trophies for their hits The Blind Side and Julie & Julia and Robert Downey Jr., somehow, winning a trophy for Sherlock Holmes. Not that it's surprising, really-- the Hollywood Foreign Press is a notorious bunch of star-crazy hacks who will do pretty much anything to get the most famous people to show up to their party and hand them a trophy for their effort.
And yet, despite the fact we complain every year how the Globes are a meaningless bunch of awards that are basically an excuse to have a party, they have an impact on the Oscar race all the same. Not in the way you might think, though-- Avatar is not a runaway Best Picture favorite now, any more than Robert Downey Jr. will somehow make his way into the Best Actor category. The populist slant of the Globes makes them stand out distinctly from Oscar, and yet their choices do reflect some of the leanings of the industry as a whole. Somehow. Here's what I gleaned from last night:
Avatar is strong, but not invincible. Yes, James Cameron jumped on that stage twice, and yes, the movie is gigantic and getting bigger. But the Oscars, for lack of a better word, are more pretentious than the Globes, and are at least more likely to pay attention to the smaller contenders, even if Avatar winds up winning in the end. Not to mention that what Cameron said about expecting Kathryn Bigelow to win instead wasn't just nice posturing. Bigelow is still incredibly well-positioned to become the first-ever female Best Director, and that kind of publicity will likely prove irresistible to the Academy, a group that seems more likely to like The Hurt Locker anyway. Avatar is still very much a factor in the Best Picture race, but I'm betting this Globe win doesn't improve Cameron's chances of a second Director win one bit.
Jeff Bridges will finally win an Oscar. Last night would have been the opportunity for George Clooney to pass him by, but it didn't happen, and Bridges will take the tiny Crazy Heart all the way to a long-overdue Best Actor statue. Good on him.
Sandra Bullock could very well win an Oscar. With Meryl Streep over in the Comedy category, Bullock had the change to charge to the front lines of a Best Actress race that magically expanded to include her-- and she did it with an excellent acceptance speech to boot. She now has a very realistic shot at a win, though there are probably enough people who believe that Streep is "overdue" for a third win that it still feels unlikely. But speaking of speeches...
Giving good acceptance speech gets you far. Sure, the best speech of the night probably goes to RDJ, but the actual Oscar contenders as well-- Bullock, Streep, Waltz, Mo'nique, Bridges-- all nailed their speeches with a sense of genuine emotion, awe, and gratitude. Mo'nique in particular was in dire need of a good showing, given how much news about her campaign for the Oscar is about how she hasn't campaigned at all. When Academy voters pick up their ballot and think about who they want to pick up the award, they'll have all these speeches as reference points-- and it's a fair bet that all of the people we saw up there last night, give or take a Streep or Bullock, will be repeating the performances Oscar night.
Up in the Air is looking like a bit of a bridesmaid. George Clooney, Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga all went home empty-handed, and director Jason Reitman wound up sharing the stage with co-writer Sheldon Turner for the night's screenplay prize. Not quite the performance you would have predicted for movie that was considered the Oscar frontrunner before Avatar stormed the beaches. Up in the Air is still a strong contender for the Best Adapted Screenplay, particular with Tarantino over in Original, but then again, this fascinating Los Angeles Times article makes a case that the writing partnership between Turner and Reitman is a lot more complicated, and acrimonious, than it might seem. The final work is the final work, of course, but off-camera drama has torpedoed dozens of Oscar hopefuls in the past.
In the music categories at least, the best ones really may win. The Globes had the opportunity to award Best Original Song to someone famous like Paul McCartney or Bono, and Best Original Score could have been a chance to join the Avatar pile-on with a statue for James Horner. But neither happens, and T. Bone Burnett and Michael Giacchino both got to stand onstage for creating some of the genuinely best movie music of the year. There's no reason to believe it won't repeat itself at the Oscars, and that knowledge in itself is enough to genuinely look forward to the ceremony.
Now on to the charts, where very little has changed in the top tiers of predictions, but all kinds of things feel up in the air near the bottom. The Best Picture 10 feel more flexible now than ever, even with the top 5 slots sewn up-- Invictus, A Serious Man, Nine and An Education all feel totally replaceable, and there's no limit of crazy dark horses that could jump in their place. Same goes for the Supporting Actress category, where Mo'nique still makes things impossible to predict. Predicting surprises for the Oscars is never really the best plan-- they are nothing if not traditionalists-- but now's the point in the game where lots of unimaginable things suddenly start feeling possible. It's fun, right?
| BEST PICTURE |
I've given District 9 the 10th place spot, because, well, why not-- it has shown up consistently in the guild awards to the point that it really can't be ignored. But honestly, beyond those top six locks, anything feels possible.
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire
Up
Up in the Air
An Education
Invictus
Nine
A Serious Man
500 Days of Summer
The Blind Side
District 9
Julie & Julia
A Single Man
Star Trek
Bright Star
Brothers
Crazy Heart
The Hangover
The Last Station
The Informant!
Public Enemies
The Road
Sherlock Holmes
Where the Wild Things Are
| BEST DIRECTOR |
Kathryn Bigelow will win this award. The only question now is whether it's Lee Daniels or Clint Eastwood in the fifth slot.
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Lee Daniels, Precious
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Rob Marshall, Nine
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Tom Ford, A Single Man
Lone Scherfig, An Education
John Hillcoat, The Road
Michael Hoffman, The Last Station
Michael Mann, Public Enemies
Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Jim Sheridan, Brothers
| BEST ACTOR |
It's delightful to see Bridges at the top of the heap here, and presumably any of the men who get nominated will be honored to be right there alongside him. Still not sure about who might replace Freeman or Renner, but neither is feeling quite 100% yet.
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 500 Days of Summer
Tobey Maguire, Brothers
James McAvoy, The Last Station
Sam Rockwell, Moon
Sharlto Copley, District 9
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Ben Foster, The Messenger
Hal Holbrook, That Evening Sun
| BEST ACTRESS |
The Globe win confirmed what we all knew already-- Sandra Bullock is getting an Oscar nomination this year. That brings the mortal locks to four, with just Helen Mirren hovering on the outside, for no reason other than that there's not a really great reason to nominate her. One of the other contending ladies would need to pick up her game, though, for Mirren's spot to disappear.
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Tilda Swinton, Julia
Natalie Portman, Brothers
Saiorse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
Woody Harrelson is increasingly feeling like the only threat to Christoph Waltz for this award, particularly after Waltz's gracious acceptance speech at the Globes last night. Still unclear how Tucci will fit in and if Alfred Molina can pull off some kind of last-minute surge, but at least Woody and Christoph will look dashing in their tuxes on Oscar night.
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
Mo'nique gave a great speech last night, and the award remains hers to lose. The rest of the category still feels so damn crazy, but I want Cotillard to fit in here so badly that I'm keeping her in place until there's a compelling argument otherwise. It's still really, really difficult to see how Cruz makes it in instead.
Mo'Nique, Precious
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mariah Carey, Precious
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Paula Patton, Precious
