Welcome back to day two of possibly ill-advised Oscar predictions. Today we've still got more technical awards, plus the three feature awards that no one generally pays attention to. Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, Best Film Editing, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary, Best Animated Film. Let's have at it!
Best Cinematography
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Harris Savides, Milk
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
These choices may be more representative of my own hopes than reality, given that I've replaced cinematographer's guild nominee The Reader with Milk. I think Milk's Best Picture likelihood, plus the need to recognize never-nominated Harris Savides, will push it in over a double nod for Roger Deakins.
Best Visual Effects
Iron Man
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The easiest category to predict, as far as I can tell. Iron Man and The Dark Knight are the hugely successful blockbusters, and Benjamin Button is the new standard-bearer in how visual effects can tell a more realistic story (think Forrest Gump 14 years ago).
Best Editing
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Conventional wisdom is that the nominees from the American Society of Cinematographers predict their own category as well as Best Picture, so going with Frost/Nixon instead of Wall-E here would probably have been safer. But whether or not this means I think Wall-E will get the Best Picture nomination instead of Ron Howard's movie, you'll have to wait and see tomorrow.
Best Foreign Language Film
Waltz With Bashir
The Class
Everlasting Moments
Der Bader Meinhof Komplex
Revanche
The first two on this list feel like solid calls-- Bashir is almost guaranteed the win after the Golden Globes, and The Class is too high-profile, and from too popular an Oscar country, to miss. Everlasting Moments seems to have the usual Oscar baity stuff-- biography of a famous person-- and Baader Meinhof was also a Globe nominee. The fifth, I'm taking straight from Nathaniel Rogers, since I have no better guess.
Best Documentary Feature
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
The first is the category juggernaut as far as precursor awards, and the second is directed by an industry legend, so both feel like locks. Trouble the Water got Sundance buzz and hits a hot topic, so it feels like a safe bet. Werner Herzog has never-- never!-- been nominated for an Oscar, so this seems like as good a year as any to fix that. And I.O.U.S.A is the timeliest of all, dealing as it does with America's over-reliance on credit. With so many high-profile docs not making the shortlist this year, it's trickier to predict than in years past.
Best Animated Feature
Wall-E
Waltz With Bashir
You don't need explanations for these, do you? One by all means should be nominated for Best Picture; one will almost definitely win Best Foreign Language Film. The third is a well-loved and gorgeous mainstream movie that finally gives the smart animation fan an alternative to Pixar. Hard to imagine any other combination here.
