We all knew that Avengers; Endgame was going to be the movie to beat at the box office this year, but somehow the film still surprised us. It set every opening weekend record there was to set when it debuted and it has remained at the top of the box office ever since. However, that spot can't last forever and it looks like Keanu Reeves may be the man to finally take down the Avengers, as John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum has a serious shot and taking the box office crown.
Avengers: Endgame finished last weekend with $63 million, a 57% drop over the previous week. That's about the same percentage drop that the film saw between its first and second week of release. If that pattern holds up and Endgame drops another 57% or more, then it will finish next weekend with around $27 million. This would put it well behind John Wick: Chapter 3, as the movie is currently tracking to do $30 million or more in its opening weekend.
John Wick: Chapter 3 looks like it will finish next weekend with something between $30 and $35 million, though Variety says some analysts are putting the number as high as $40 million. That's a solid number, to be sure, but it's a number that would have put the film in third place behind Detective Pikachu if it had come out last weekend. However, it looks like John Wick may have waited the perfect amount of time as Avengers: Endgame hysteria has now dropped to a somewhat manageable level.
Of course, there is always the possibility that these numbers won't end up looking quite the way that projections are suggesting. Detective Pikachu was, at one point, tracking for an opening weekend close to $100 million last weekend and ended up doing more like half that.
It's unclear if that happened because people just wren't as interested in the Pokemon movie or if Endgame really ate into the movie's box office more than expected. If the issue was the latter, we could potentially see John Wick underperform in the same way that Pikachu did.
If John Wick: Chapter 3 does perform as expected it will likely see a franchise best opening, as Chapter 2 opened to slightly more than $30 million.
In this day and age it's unusual for a single movie to hold the box office for even two weekends in a row, as every weekend has at least one major release looking for an audience. If Avengers: Endgame is somehow able to win the box office again next weekend it will become the first movie since Black Panther to do that four weekends in a row (Panther was actually able to win the box office for five weekends).
Of course, even if Avengers: Endgame doesn't win the box office, we can be fairly certain it's not done bringing in the box office. It will likely continue to bring in several million over the next several weekends. The movie is the second highest grossing movie of all time worldwide and third highest domestically. All of those records are still very possible for Endgame.
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