Election Genius Nate Silver Predicts The Oscars
Ever since Nate Silver took over the world in 2008 with his statistics-heavy, terrifyingly accurate model for predicting the Presidential election, movie types have been half-joking to themselves "Nate Silver should start predicting the Oscars!" Of course, anyone who understands either statistics or the rat's nest of Oscar campaigning understands it's not nearly that easy. Silver's election predictions rely on a ton of data from polls conducted almost daily, while those of us foolish enough to predict the Oscars rely on an alchemy of critic's awards, guild awards, campaigns, budget, "buzz" and whatever Harvey Weinstein is trying to secretly attack.
And yet, there's still a part of all of us that likes to think Nate Silver knows everything-- see the "#drunknatesilver" hashtag on twitter for all the evidence you need-- and like any good nerdy demigod, Silver has complied. Over at Five Thirty Eight you can read his customarily detailed prediction, full of statistical analysis and plenty of admissions that the Oscars are not nearly as straightforward as elections. He comes across some interesting tidbits that are usually limited only to Oscar obsessives, though. Did you know that the Directors Guild award winner is the most likely predictor of Best Picture? (One of the many reasons most are predicting Argo to take the top prize). Or that the Golden Globe winner of Best Drama is a better indicator of an Oscar win than any single critic's group?
For what it's worth Silver is predicting wins for Argo (Picture), Steven Spielberg (Director), Daniel Day-Lewis (Actor), Jennifer Lawrence (Actress), Tommy Lee Jones (Supporting Actor) and Anne Hathaway (Supporting Actress). With the exception of Jones, that lines up perfectly with my own predictions. See! You can trust me after all. Nate Silver is on my side.
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