Look, Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice has become one of the most highly anticipated movies of all time, but excitement and fanfare don’t mean anything if a movie cannot turn a profit. That’s the sad, simple truth of show business. While the Last Son of Krypton and the Dark Knight are slated to go toe to toe on the silver screen for the first time next month, the question remains: what are the chances that Batman V Superman will even make money? As it turns out, we actually have some insight regarding that topic, because science.
According to a new report from CBR, a group of computer scientists recently implemented an algorithm to determine the likelihood that a film will actually be profitable at the box office. Based on a computer’s ability to crunch the numbers, they estimated that Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice has a 32% chance of garnering at least a $7.3 million profit, which is the number an average studio exec might "reasonably expect" to see returned on an investment. The algorithm they used is based off of data collected from 2,506 films released between 2000 and 2010, and factors in numerous elements such as budget, cast, director and release date.
For comparison’s sake, the scientists also calculated the probability for other notable 2016 films. While the animated Disney feature Zootopia came out with a 55% chance of profitability, the upcoming Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead came in with 16% and horror film Before I Wake bottoming out the group at a mere 13%.
There’s quite a bit of nervousness associated with the upcoming release of Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice. Despite all of our anticipation, rumors have begun to swirl that Warner Bros. may not exactly feel quite as confident about the finished product as we once thought. These rumors also point to the possibility that WB may make some massive changes to their slate of DC films by removing Zack Snyder from his "show runner" position and giving Ben Affleck’s solo Batman movie top priority among the pack.
Considering WB’s $200 million investment in Batman V Superman, we think the numbers produced by this algorithm have given them every reason to be concerned. We seriously don’t want another The Amazing Spider-Man 2 on our hands any time soon. However, one thing the upcoming DC film has going for it is the fact that it will open simultaneously in all major markets; this reduces chances for piracy, as well as any potential negative buzz to eat into its initial earnings. We’re really hoping that massive budget went to good use. Check out the latest action packed trailer for Batman V Superman to get excited, or to say a prayer for the film, depending on your current point of view:
Only time will tell if Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice turns a profit. At the end of the day the computer can only give us an estimate, and no one knows for sure how well the film will do. No matter what, this doesn’t make us any less excited for the historic superhero smack down that’s about to occur in the DCEU. Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice will hit theaters on March 25.