Awards Blend: Spotlight's Huge Weekend Makes It The One To Beat

It was the closest thing to a clean sweep as we have seen so far this awards season.

Over the weekend, several major regional critics groups revealed their choices for the "Best" films of 2015. Organizations from Los Angeles to Boston (and points in between) spread their love to a smattering of different films and performances, keeping the hopes of numerous Oscar contenders alive. But when it came down to naming a Best Picture, it was Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight that took the top prize again and again.

Spotlight was named Best Picture by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the Boston Society of Film Critics, the Washington DC Area Film Critics, and the New York Film Critics Online. Earlier in the season, Spotlight picked up the top prize at the Gotham Awards. It leads the nominations for the 2016 Independent Spirit Awards. And it performed extremely well during its early run through the fall film festival circuit.

What does this mean? Perhaps not much, but at this stage in the game, building up any sort of momentum can be crucial to establishing a film as a frontrunner, and Spotlight sure picked up a significant amount of critical adoration over the weekend. "Frontrunner" status can also lead to backlash, as those who might not believe in Tom McCarthy’s masterpiece can start to chip away at its credibility (though what they could possibly oppose is beyond me, at this point). For now, here’s where I think the Oscar contenders sit on December 7. What about you?
 

BEST PICTURE

 

The Frontrunners

Brooklyn
The Martian
Room
Spotlight

 

The Contenders

45 Years
The Big Short
Bridge Of Spies
Carol
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
The Revenant
Steve Jobs

 

The Dark Horses

Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
Black Mass
Concussion
Creed
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Suffragette
Trumbo

 

The Longshots

The End Of The Tour
Love & Mercy
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Youth

The more I think about Spotlight, the more I realize it doesn’t have an ounce of fat on it. It’s airtight, and its precision – from the script to the performances – can be traced back to Tom McCarthy. I need to see it one more time, but he might be running away with this category. Can Quentin Tarantino or David O. Russell disrupt his flow?

 

BEST DIRECTOR

 

The Frontrunner

John Crowley, Brooklyn
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Ridley Scott, The Martian

 

The Contenders

Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

 

The Dark Horses

Scott Cooper, Black Mass
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Sarah Gavron, Suffragette
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Adam McKay, The Big Short
David O. Russell, Joy
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

 

The Longshots

J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Peter Docter, Inside Out
Peter Landesman, Concussion

Now that I’ve seen Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, I can tell you that I think he gets in. Not only that, I think he’s the one to beat in this category. Not because he gives the year’s best performance. (In fact, Tom Hardy’s slightly better than DiCaprio in the SAME movie!) However, the narrative that it’s DiCaprio’s time is strong, and I’m not sure that there’s another powerful male performance ready to knock Leo out this year. Depp and Damon are possible. Outside of those three, I’m not seeing it.
 

BEST ACTOR

The Frontrunners

Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

The Contenders

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

 

The Dark Horses

Steve Carell, The Big Short
John Cusack, Love & Mercy
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Will Smith, Concussion

 

The Longshots

Michael Caine, Youth
Tom Hardy, Legend
Edgar Ramirez, Joy

We are seeing a lot of the same names in the category, as if the candidates had been established for weeks, and now they are just jockeying for position. Carol boasts two spectacular performances. Saoirse Ronan is brilliant in Brooklyn, and Brie Larson is picking up early critics’ awards for Room. Having seen Joy, I predict Jennifer Lawrence stays firmly in the Best Actress conversation this year. And I’m pulling for Charlotte Rampling, who is devastating in 45 Years. What say you?
 

BEST ACTRESS

 

The Frontrunner

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

 

The Contenders

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

 

The Dark Horses

Emily Blunt, Sicario
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

 

The Longshots

Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Easily this year’s most competitive race, which means several worthy names will be left out when the nominations eventually are announced. How many actors from Spotlight can get in? You could almost give all five slots to members of the outstanding Spotlight ensemble, but in reality, I bet two make the cut. Mark Rylance still feels like a lock for Bridge of Spies. After that, though, there are SO MANY names that deserve consideration. This is the hardest race to narrow down, and I predict it will come down to the wire.
 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 

The Frontrunners

Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Jacob Tremblay, Room

The Contenders

Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs
Liev Schreiber, Spotlight
Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

 

The Dark Horses

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Jim Broadbent, Brooklyn
Albert Brooks, Concussion
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Robert De Niro, Joy
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Bruce Dern, The Hateful Eight
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Ryan Gosling, The Big Short
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

 

The Longshots

Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Alicia Vikander long has been the frontrunner in this category, not just for her soul-baring work in The Danish Girl (which should earn her an Oscar win, not just a nomination), but in recognition of the exquisite year she had as a performer. I also finally caught Youth last week, though, and I understand why many believe Jane Fonda’s scant bit of screentime will earn her a nod. It’s a showy, vitriolic turn that drips with the resentment of an older actress – and a Hollywodo legend – leveling bitter (but accurate) criticisms at her industry. Biting the hand that has fed her for years? What better way to get Oscar’s attention? I bet it works in her favor come nomination morning.  
 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 

The Frontrunners

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol

 

The Contenders

Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Jobs

 

The Dark Horses

Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette
Helen Mirren, Trumbo

 

The Longshots

Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Concussion
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Katharine Waterston, Steve Jobs