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It’s time to start trimming the fat. More Oscar contenders are starting to screen for analysts and audience members, meaning the annual awards race is shifting into focus. There’s still plenty of time to debate the merits of the major players, but more and more minor players are falling by the wayside. The bloodletting is about to begin.

With this reshuffling comes a drastic rearrangement near the top of each chart. Certain movies have cemented their status as contenders, though "frontrunner" is a dangerous term (as Steve Jobs proved that claiming it can lead to a backfire). There are still a number of strong movies that need to screen between now and the end of the year. Something like The Revenant or The Hateful Eight could drop and completely change the landscape of the Oscar discussion. But fall film festival favorites like Room, Brooklyn and Spotlight continue to earn prestige points while working the circuit, while The Martian continues to be a force at the box office.

With that in mind, here’s where I think the Oscar contenders sit on November 11:
oscar winner prediction
The Frontrunners

The Martian
Steve Jobs
The Contenders

Bridge Of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Dark Horses

45 Years
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Black Mass
The Danish Girl
The End Of The Tour
In The Heart of the Sea
Love & Mercy
Straight Outta Compton
The Longshots

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
For a while, I thought this was Danny Boyle’s category to lose. At the very least, I thought he had the nomination locked up. He still should get in to the race, and he remains in the discussion, but the way that Steve Jobs has underperformed at the box office has to give everyone pause.

oscar winner prediction
The Frontrunner

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
The Contenders

Lenny Abrahamson, Room
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
The Dark Horses

Ryan Coogler, Creed
Scott Cooper, Black Mass
Sarah Gavron, Suffragette
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
The Longshots

J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Peter Docter, Inside Out
Peter Landesman, Concussion
Bill Pohlad, Love & Mercy
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
Last season, Best Actor was a ridiculously competitive category, with just as many worthy candidates left on the outside of the category looking in as there was five eventual nominees. This year looks equally impressive, though there are a number of films yet to drop. Is this the year that Leonardo DiCaprio finally wins? Or could Matt Damon’s The Martian performance prove to be the spoiler?

oscar winner prediction
The Frontrunners

Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
The Contenders

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
The Dark Horses

Steve Carell, The Big Short
John Cusack, Love & Mercy
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Edgar Ramirez, Joy
Will Smith, Concussion
The Longshots

Michael Caine, Youth
Richard Gere, Time Out Of Mind
Tom Hardy, Legend
Chris Hemsworth, In The Heart of the Sea
More people need to see Carol. It’s supposedly fantastic, with Rooney Mara and Cate Blanchett owning the drama. But right now, a limited number of awards pundits have been allowed to see the film (outside of its festival screenings), which has allowed Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan to gain valuable momentum in the interim for Room and Brooklyn, respectively.

oscar winner prediction
The Frontrunner

Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
The Contenders

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
The Dark Horses

Emily Blunt, Sicario
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
The Longshots

Cate Blanchett, Truth
Angelina Jolie, By The Sea
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
More audience members will start to see Spotlight in the coming weeks, as Tom McCarthy’s gripping and airtight journalism drama opens in an increased number of theaters. Hopefully, from there, you all can help me figure out which of the male performers gives the better performance. I was blown away by the quiet fortitude Liev Schreiber brings to his role as the Boston Globe’s new publisher. But he’s equaled by Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Stanley Tucci, John Slattery… really, everyone is awesome. So, who makes the cut? We’ll see, in the next few weeks.
oscar winner prediction
The Frontrunners

Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Jacob Tremblay, Room
The Contenders

Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs
Liev Schreiber, Spotlight
Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
The Dark Horses

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Jim Broadbent, Brooklyn
Albert Brooks, Concussion
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Robert De Niro, Joy
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Bruce Dern, The Hateful Eight
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Ryan Gosling, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Brad Pitt, The Big Short
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
The Longshots

John Goodman, Trumbo
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Sir Ben Kingsley, The Walk
Alicia Vikander long has been the frontrunner in this category, not just for her soul-baring work in The Danish Girl (which should earn her an Oscar win, not just a nomination), but in recognition of the exquisite year she had as a performer. I also finally caught Youth last week, though, and I understand why many believe Jane Fonda’s scant bit of screentime will earn her a nod. It’s a showy, vitriolic turn that drips with the resentment of an older actress – and a Hollywodo legend – leveling bitter (but accurate) criticisms at her industry. Biting the hand that has fed her for years? What better way to get Oscar’s attention? I bet it works in her favor come nomination morning.

oscar winner prediction
The Frontrunners

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
The Contenders

Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Jobs
The Dark Horses

Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette
Melissa Leo, The Big Short
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Concussion
Ellen Page, Freeheld
Marisa Tomei, The Big Short
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Katharine Waterston, Steve Jobs
The Longshots

Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Diane Ladd, Joy