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Awards Blend: The Revenant Screened, But Is It An Oscar Contender?

The last few blocks are starting to drop into place. The final unviewed awards contenders are starting to screen, giving Oscar analysts the full picture as 2015 draws to a close. And while The Hateful Eight and Joy remain mysteries, Alejandro Inarritu’s The Revenant finally screened at The Academy on Monday night, and reactions flooded social media almost instantly. So, will this be an Oscar contender?

The almost-universal reaction to the movie is that it’s a technical masterpiece. That much is to be expected. Inarritu is fresh off of Birdman, which attempted to tell its whole story in one unbroken shot (with a few cheats), and stories have been written about how his survival tale The Revenant braved difficult environmental conditions to shoot in natural light in every frame. But was it worth it? THR’s awards pundit Scott Feinberg calls the movie "long," "gorgeous" and "gruesome." He concludes that it will get a Best Picture nomination, but isn’t the frontrunner to win.  

As for Leonardo DiCaprio, many have a vested interest in him finally winning his first Best Actor Oscar, and think The Revenant could be the performance that finally gets him over the hump. Vanity Fair goes on record, having seen the film, to say it’s DiCaprio’s race to lose. However, not everyone hopped on the bandwagon:

 

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We’ll know more as the film continues to screen. I finally see The Revenant, as well as Joy and Hateful Eight, right after Thanksgiving. For now, here’s where I think the Oscar contenders sit on November 24:

 

oscar winner prediction

BEST PICTURE

 

The FrontrunnersBrooklynThe MartianRoomSpotlightSteve Jobs

 

The ContendersBridge Of SpiesCarolEx MachinaThe Hateful EightInside OutJoyThe Revenant

 

The Dark Horses45 YearsAnomalisaBeasts of No NationThe Big ShortBlack MassConcussionCreedThe Danish GirlThe End Of The TourLove & MercyMad Max: Fury RoadStar Wars: The Force AwakensSuffragetteTrumbo

 

The LongshotsIn The Heart of the SeaSicarioStraight Outta ComptonYouth

The more I think about Spotlight, the more I realize it doesn’t have an ounce of fat on it. It’s airtight, and its precision – from the script to the performances – can be traced back to Tom McCarthy. I need to see it one more time, but he might be running away with this category. Can Quentin Tarantino or David O. Russell disrupt his flow?

 

oscar winner prediction

BEST DIRECTOR

 

The FrontrunnerDanny Boyle, Steve JobsJohn Crowley, BrooklynTom McCarthy, Spotlight

 

The ContendersLenny Abrahamson, RoomAlejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The RevenantGeorge Miller, Mad Max: Fury RoadDavid O. Russell, JoyRidley Scott, The MartianSteven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

 

The Dark HorsesRyan Coogler, CreedScott Cooper, Black MassAlex Garland, Ex MachinaSarah Gavron, SuffragetteTodd Haynes, CarolTom Hooper, The Danish GirlAdam McKay, The Big ShortQuentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

 

The LongshotsJ.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force AwakensPeter Docter, Inside OutRon Howard, In the Heart of the SeaPeter Landesman, ConcussionBill Pohlad, Love & MercyRobert Zemeckis, The Walk

The word on Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant is split. Some still say that it’s his Oscar to lose, but the argument tends to be "well, it’s his time." Doesn’t that same point apply to Johnny Depp, though, who shed his Pirates quirks to give a masterful performance in Black Mass? It could be Depp’s time, too, especially if Academy members are cool on what is being labeled as brutal sit in The Revenant. Time will tell.

 

oscar winner prediction

BEST ACTOR

The FrontrunnersMatt Damon, The MartianJohnny Depp, Black MassMichael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

The ContendersBryan Cranston, TrumboLeonardo DiCaprio, The RevenantTom Hanks, Bridge of SpiesEddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

 

The Dark HorsesSteve Carell, The Big ShortJohn Cusack, Love & MercyMichael B. Jordan, CreedIan McKellen, Mr. HolmesEdgar Ramirez, JoyWill Smith, Concussion

 

The LongshotsMichael Caine, YouthRichard Gere, Time Out Of MindTom Hardy, LegendChris Hemsworth, In The Heart of the Sea

More people need to see Carol. It’s supposedly fantastic, with Rooney Mara and Cate Blanchett owning the drama. But right now, a limited number of awards pundits have been allowed to see the film (outside of its festival screenings), which has allowed Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan to gain valuable momentum in the interim for Room and Brooklyn, respectively.  

 

oscar winner prediction

BEST ACTRESS

 

The FrontrunnerCate Blanchett, CarolBrie Larson, RoomSaoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

 

The ContendersJennifer Lawrence, JoyCarey Mulligan, SuffragetteCharlotte Rampling, 45 Years

 

The Dark HorsesEmily Blunt, SicarioMarion Cotillard, MacbethBlythe Danner, I’ll See You In My DreamsCharlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury RoadLily Tomlin, Grandma

 

The LongshotsSarah Silverman, I Smile BackMaggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

More audience members will start to see Spotlight in the coming weeks, as Tom McCarthy’s gripping and airtight journalism drama opens in an increased number of theaters. Hopefully, from there, you all can help me figure out which of the male performers gives the better performance. I was blown away by the quiet fortitude Liev Schreiber brings to his role as the Boston Globe’s new publisher. But he’s equaled by Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Stanley Tucci, John Slattery… really, everyone is awesome. So, who makes the cut? We’ll see, in the next few weeks.

 

oscar winner prediction

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 

The FrontrunnersMichael Keaton, SpotlightMark Ruffalo, SpotlightMark Rylance, Bridge of SpiesJacob Tremblay, Room

The ContendersTom Courtenay, 45 YearsPaul Dano, Love & MercyTom Hardy, The RevenantSeth Rogen, Steve JobsLiev Schreiber, SpotlightJason Segel, The End of the TourSylvester Stallone, Creed

 

The Dark HorsesChristian Bale, The Big ShortJim Broadbent, BrooklynAlbert Brooks, ConcussionBradley Cooper, JoyRobert De Niro, JoyBenicio Del Toro, SicarioBruce Dern, The Hateful EightJoel Edgerton, Black MassIdris Elba, Beasts of No NationRyan Gosling, The Big ShortOscar Isaac, Ex MachinaSamuel L. Jackson, The Hateful EightKurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

 

The LongshotsHarvey Keitel, YouthJason Mitchell, Straight Outta ComptonMichael Shannon, 99 Homes

Alicia Vikander long has been the frontrunner in this category, not just for her soul-baring work in The Danish Girl (which should earn her an Oscar win, not just a nomination), but in recognition of the exquisite year she had as a performer. I also finally caught Youth last week, though, and I understand why many believe Jane Fonda’s scant bit of screentime will earn her a nod. It’s a showy, vitriolic turn that drips with the resentment of an older actress – and a Hollywodo legend – leveling bitter (but accurate) criticisms at her industry. Biting the hand that has fed her for years? What better way to get Oscar’s attention? I bet it works in her favor come nomination morning.  

 

oscar winner prediction

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 

The FrontrunnersRachel McAdams, SpotlightAlicia Vikander, The Danish GirlRooney Mara, Carol

 

The ContendersJoan Allen, RoomElizabeth Banks, Love & MercyJane Fonda, YouthJennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful EightKate Winslet, Jobs

 

The Dark HorsesHelena Bonham Carter, SuffragetteHelen Mirren, TrumboGugu Mbatha-Raw, ConcussionJulie Walters, BrooklynKatharine Waterston, Steve Jobs

 

The LongshotsJessica Chastain, The MartianDiane Ladd, JoyEllen Page, Freeheld

Sean O'Connell

Movie junkie. Infatuated with comic-book films. ReelBlend cohost. Resident dad. Extroverted introvert. Wants to see the Snyder Cut. Managing Director at CinemaBlend.