Wow, it's been a while. So long, in fact, that the Oscar race has seemingly solidified in my absence, as if the movie industry went on vacation and all of a sudden came back having decided what the five Best Picture nominees would be?
Don't believe me? The proof, or the closest thing to proof you'll get, is today's Director's Guild nominations coupled with those from the Writer's Guild and the Producer's Guild. Those three groups, more than all the critics in the world, tell us more about the Oscars, since they actually include, uh, the people who vote for Oscars. Bloviate as we may, critics don't have a vote.
The producers and the directors matched five for five on their favorite films-- Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Dark Knight. All five of those films made it into the WGA nominations as well, though since they have both adapted and original categories, there was a lot more room. That matches up perfectly with what at least one prognosticator has been predicting for a while now, as well as the assorted geniuses polled by Movie City News.
So do we really have this whole thing figured out already? Maybe. The best drama lineup at this weekend's Golden Globes is interesting in that it only matches three of those five films-- Milk and The Dark Knight were both snubbed, in what amounted to small bumps on their road to glory. Their overall absence may make the Golden Globes even more irrelevant than usual, since when Slumdog or Benjamin Button triumphs, it won't be over some of the stiffest competition.
It's also worth remembering that the guilds aren't perfect predictors-- nothing is, really. Most years one of the directors nominated by the DGA doesn't make it into the Academy lineup; last year Sean Penn was snubbed by Oscar in favor of Juno's Jason Reitman, and the year before the directors of Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine both missed an Oscar nod to go with their DGA recognition. Same goes for the producers; they went for Diving Bell and the Butterfly last year when Oscar picked Atonement, and Dreamgirls in 2006 instead of Oscar's pick, Letters from Iwo Jima. (Heads up to Awards Daily for compiling all this info).
What makes this year different from others, though, is there's not much that can conceivably crash the party. Every possible alternative to the five listed above seemingly has something insurmountable working against it: Wall-E is struggling to get out of the animated ghetto, Revolutionary Road found virtually no critical support, The Reader even less so, Doubt's reception has been all about its performances, and The Wrestler seems so impossible to market that still no one is talking about this gem. So while people still wonder whether or not The Dark Knight can overcome the comic book thing, or if Frost/Nixon has enough people who love it to actually make the top five, it's hard to imagine anything else taking their place.
So for now, that seems to be our top five-- and, with possible exceptions for Darren Aronofsky or Clint Eastwood jumping into the director's race, our top five directors as well. Booooooooring. The more interesting action is in the acting categories, where neither female group has produced a frontrunner. Sally Hawkins got all the critic's attention for Happy-Go-Lucky, but she probably can't win for such a small movie; Kate Winslet, on the other hand, still risks splitting votes between Revolutionary Road and The Reader, and getting shut-out entirely. Will Meryl Streep really win again for Doubt? Is Angelina Jolie going to weasel her way in there somehow for Changeling?
The supporting actress category is even stranger. Penelope Cruz has cleaned up for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, of course, but Maria Tomei in The Wrestler and Viola Davis in Doubt still seem like possible contenders. And no one really knows who will fill in those remaining two slots. Taraji P. Henson, thanks to Benjamin Button's overall love? Rosemarie DeWitt, despite the fact that seemingly no one saw Rachel Getting Married? Can Kate Winslet seriously pretend she's a supporting actress in The Reader?
I'm not sure how much more we'll know after the Critics Choice Awards (which happen tonight) and the Golden Globes (Sunday), but I'll have another column next Monday trying to suss it all out. If Slumdog Millionaire wins at either ceremony, I predict it'll be significantly harder for anything to beat it. If The Dark Knight wins the Critics Choice, though, we might have a much more interesting race on our hands. And given how wide open the acting races are at this point, any wins may set the momentum. The Mickey Rourke-Sean Penn smackdown in Best Actor may finally clear itself up, for example, or Anne Hathaway might establish herself as a frontrunner for Best Actress. There's really no telling.
After the Globes, things will be happening really fast. Oscar nomination ballots are due the next day, and two weeks from today the nominations are announced! I'll have more columns between the Globes and then with actual predictions, and more of whatever else comes up. It's finally honest-to-God Oscar season, so you guys actually care about this stuff now.
Below is the chart, which may also change shape in the weeks to come. It's all one chart now, because it's 2009! Everything is in release. So why aren't you in theaters seeing everything? Get on it!
Taken off the chart this week for lack of overall momentum: Seven Pounds, Last Chance Harvey, Synecdoche New York, Wendy and Lucy
| ALREADY IN RELEASE |
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | FILM | DATE | SYNOPSIS | WIN POTENTIAL |
The Visitor
Jenkins remains clustered at the bottom of the group, fighting for the fifth slot in the Best Actor category. The SAG nod may be enough to push him over the edge.
Will probably be right next to Wall-E in the Best Animated Feature category, but it'll have to settle for bridesmaid there.
WALL-E
A longshot Best Picture contender that might benefit from strong love from a certain section of the Academy. it would be the best surprise of the year if it made it. .
The Dark Knight
Looking increasingly likely as the fifth Best Picture nominee, but it's still vulnerable. Heath Ledger remains a lock, though, as do most technical awards..
Frozen River
Melissa Leo, the film's only hope, seems to be faltering in a crowded field. I wouldn't put much money on her at this point.
Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr. shows up in nearly every Supporting Actor list, and seems increasingly likely to make it in for the big show. Wow. Score one more for summer movies with style.
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Penelope Cruz keeps cleaning up with critics, and looks increasingly like a lock for the Supporting Actress trophy. Only Doubt's Viola Davis is likely to upset her.
Rachel Getting Married
It might be all Anne Hathaway, now that Jenny Lumet's screenplay didn't make WGA consideration. We'll see how the Globes go. .
Happy-Go-Lucky
Sally Hawkins has gotten immense critical love, and Mike Leigh has shown up as a lone director at the Oscars before. Maybe the dark horse to watch.
Changeling
Angelina made it into the SAG nominees, suggesting an Oscar upset is possible. Is there anything we can do to stop this?
I've Loved You So Long
Kristin Scott Thomas has been shut out by critics, and needs a champion fast to stay competitive. The Best Actress race is more volatile than ever now.
Slumdog Millionaire
The one to beat, in pretty much every category. Picture, Director, Screenplay and Cinematography are total locks, and maybe even for the win.
Milk
With Josh Brolin gaining on Ledger in the supporting race and Sean Penn cleaning up statues right and left, it will likely be on top next to Slumdog through the nominations. The Golden Globe snub will not hurt it.
Frost/Nixon
No one seems to love it, but everyone respects it enough to include it in most awards. The lack overwhelming love may hurt it at the Oscars, though.
The Class
The nomination for Best Foreign Language seems guaranteed, but a win? Who knows.
Doubt
A huge win with the SAG Awards increases the chance of all four actors here getting nods, and it could sneak into Best Picture too.
The Reader
Kate got the double nods with SAG and the Globes as well, and the film made it in for Best Drama with the Globes. Kate still seems the best bet here.
Gran Torino
Some people love the way Clint Eastwood growls his way through this movie; some people loathe it. But he's just universally beloved enough to sneak into that Best Actor race, damn him. The rest of the movie, though, forget it.
The Wrestler
It's Rourke vs. Penn for the Best Actor race, and Tomei and Aronofsky seem possible spoilers in their own categories too (for nominations, not the win).
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It's the juggernaut that might threaten Slumdog, but the lack of strong acting contenders could hurt it. It's a lock for a nomination, though.
Revolutionary Road
It's hanging on by a thread, mostly thanks to a Globe nod for Best Drama and Kate Winslet's repeated nods for Best Actress. It's hovering outside the Best Picture top 5, but is pretty likely to find itself shut out.
Waltz With Bashir
It's been constant bridesmaid to Wall-E in the critic's awards, and that's where it will stay for Oscar. It's nice just to be nominated, right?
