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Rambo pulling back a bowstring

After over a decade in retirement since the last film in the franchise, Sylvester Stallone’s second-most iconic character is headed back to theaters for one final battle in Rambo: Last Blood. The fifth film featuring Vietnam War veteran John Rambo opens in theaters next month and the long-range tracking has arrived giving us an idea of how much Rambo V could make its opening weekend.

We’re a little less than two months out from Rambo: Last Blood’s release date and Box Office Pro is forecasting that the film from director Adrian Grunberg will open in the range of $10 million to $20 million. An opening in that range would be roughly on par with the openings for the rest of the Rambo films with the potential to have a franchise-best opening.

In 1982, First Blood opened to $6.6 million, but that was in release in less than 1,000 theaters. Coming off the success of that film, the sequel, Rambo: First Blood Part II, had the best opening in the franchise to date with $20.1 million not adjusted for inflation. That was followed by Rambo III, which opened to $13 million in 1988.

The most recent film in the franchise, 2008’s Rambo, capitalized on nostalgia twenty years after Rambo III, by making $18.2 million in its opening weekend for the franchise’s second-best opening. If Rambo: Last Blood lands at the top of that $10 milion to $20 million forecasted range, it could conceivably score the biggest opening weekend in the franchise.

It’s far too early to know what the reviews will be like and how they will help or hurt Last Blood’s box office prospects. However, Sylvester Stallone has a fan base and older male audiences could turn out to see his Rambo on screen one last time. That demographic has shown up for The Expendables films and audiences in general have shown up to see Sly’s most iconic character in the Creed films in recent years.

The surprising performance of last year‘s Denzel Washington film The Equalizer 2, which succeeded in part thanks to older male audiences, may also prove a valuable, if inexact, comparison for Rambo: Last Blood. Working against Last Blood is the fact that audiences may be a bit fatigued with nostalgic action franchises, which haven’t always performed at the box office recently.

Even if Rambo: Last Blood comes in on the high end of the long-range forecasting, it may not be enough to win first place opening weekend. September is a sneaky good month with IT Chapter Two debuting two weeks earlier. Depending on its dropoff, it could still be a contender when Rambo opens. As far as Last Blood’s direct competition, it opens opposite Downton Abbey and Ad Astra.

Downton Abbey’s release strategy isn’t clear as of yet so there is not tracking available but James Gray’s Ad Astra starring Brad Pitt is tracking to open just above Rambo: Last Blood, in the $15 million to $25 million range.

We’ll keep you updated as Rambo: Last Blood approaches and we get a clearer picture at how this franchise’s final entry may do at the box office. Rambo: Last Blood opens in theaters on September 20. Check out our 2019 Release Schedule to see what’s headed your way in September and beyond and stay tuned to CinemaBlend for all your movie news.

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